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But wait

Monday – 16 Jan. 2023 – 10:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 32 and the low this morning was 24 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 92%. Winds at the airfield hit 24 mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary…Snow continued off/on yesterday, then finally wound down in the afternoon. Totals ranged from 4-8 inches. Wolf Creek Ski Area received 16 inches of snow yesterday with a storm total of 22 inches.

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Snow totals over the past 24 hours ranged from 4 to 8 inches.
total
Storm #1 totals ranged from 9.3 inches downtown to 15 inches in Chromo.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4063/ 19442-31/ 1947
Brought to you by the Springs Resort 1 768x432 1
Thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this upcoming storm!
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Winter Storm Warning for Wolf Creek Pass and Pagosa Springs (in pink) starting at 5pm this afternoon. Winter Storm Watch for New Mexico (in blue) starting this evening.

Winter Storm Warning for Pagosa Springs from 5pm today through 5pm on Tuesday.

Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs 507 AM MST Mon Jan 16 2023 …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST TUESDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. Higher amounts in the San Juan foothills. * WHERE…Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin. * WHEN…From 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Tuesday.

Winter Storm Warning for Wolf Creek Pass from 5pm today through 2am on Wednesday.

…WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM MST WEDNESDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…From 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM MST Wednesday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS… If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Avalanche Warning:

RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 321 PM MST MON JAN 16 2023 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER. …AVALANCHE WARNING IN EFFECT 5 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 11 PM TUESDAY… *WHAT…Heavy snow and strong winds will result in very dangerous avalanche conditions and a HIGH (Level 4 of 5) avalanche danger on Tuesday *WHERE…South San Juan Mountains including the La Plata Mountains, Rico Mountains, Needle Mountains, areas around Wolf Creek Pass, and the South San Juan Wilderness *WHEN… Expect very dangerous avalanche conditions to develop on Tuesday and last through the evening. *IMPACTS…Large and dangerous avalanches will be very easy to trigger in many places. Avalanches will run naturally.

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Forecast discussion…

A shortwave ahead of the trough and cold front, will move through this afternoon and evening, giving us a good chance for snow tonight. On Tuesday, the trough, low pressure and associated cold front will move our direction, giving us another round of potentially heavy snow. On Tuesday night the trough moves through, giving us a snow break by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, another shortwave will move in from the SW, giving us additional chances for snow on Thursday night and Friday. At this time, this looks like a smaller system with less snow totals.

The rest of today through-Tuesday: Cloudy with a chance for 1/2- 1 inch of snow during the day, then ramping up later this afternoon. Highs will be in the low to mid 30’s. Tonight and Tuesday…snow showers, with periods of heavy snow. This storm has the potential to be even stronger than Storm #1.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with snow showers in the morning. Lows in the teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s

Thursday-Friday: Increasing clouds with snow moving back in on Thursday night and Friday. Lows in the single digits and teens and highs in the upper 20s and low 30’s.

Snowfall forecast from this afternoon through Wednesday morning.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 8-15”

Mountains: 16-30”

For Thursday night-Friday:

Valley: 2-4”

Mountains: 4-8”

Screenshot 2023 01 16 084853
A short-wave will be moving in this afternoon ahead of a trough and low pressure to our west. By tomorrow, the trough will set us up for lots of moisture from the SW.
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The latest regional radar image (8:30am) shows snow and rain to our SW. This moisture will be moving into our area this afternoon.
StormTotalSnow
The latest NWS Grand Junction snow forecast through Thursday morning.
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The latest NWS snowfall model is predicting 14 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs, 14 inches for Chama, NM and 26 inches for Wolf Creek Pass from today through Thursday morning.

Our 5-Day Forecast…

Pagosa 5 day 1 16 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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