Your snow dances worked! More snow Monday night and Tuesday…

Let it snow! – Pic taken 1/15/2023

Let it snow! – Pic taken 1/15/2023

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Sunday – 15 Jan 2023 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 45. The low this morning was 31. The peak wind at the airfield was 16mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3955 / 19735-23 / 1963

Storm summary… Snow started coming down pretty good in the valley around 1am and fell steadily the rest of the night.  As of 9am, it’s still snowing hard.  Wolf Creek reported 6” at 6am this morning.  Facebook reports this morning were mostly in the 5-8” range.

Two Feet of Snow contest – We hit 2 feet of snow on the ground at 9am. Congratulations Lisa Doerr! She had the closest guess with 15 Jan at 4pm. She won a $50 certificate to Terry’s Colorado Home Supply!

Thanks a bunch for your reports!

CoCoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports from around 8am this morning range from 4” to 7”.  Hillary’s 7” near Chromo just edged our 6.8” in O’Neal Park.
CoCoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports from around 8am this morning range from 4” to 7”.  Hillary’s 7” near Chromo just edged our 6.8” in O’Neal Park.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – Clouds are beginning to break up so we’ll start transitioning from steady snow to hit and miss showers.  The trough will move through this afternoon.
Water vapor satellite this morning – Clouds are beginning to break up so we’ll start transitioning from steady snow to hit and miss showers.  The trough will move through this afternoon.
Radar this morning – As usual the Four Corners donut hole is preventing us from seeing snow. Showers are moving west to east, and some are moving southwest to northeast. Snow will become more hit and miss this afternoon after the trough moves through.
Radar this morning – As usual the Four Corners donut hole is preventing us from seeing snow. Showers are moving west to east, and some are moving southwest to northeast. Snow will become more hit and miss this afternoon after the trough moves through.

Rest of today… System #1 is cooperating with my forecast!

Thanks for sponsoring this storm!
Thanks for sponsoring this storm!

Moderate to heavy steady snow will turn more showery by noon.  Scattered snowshowers will linger into Sunday evening, especially over the mountains and the eastern part of the county. Winds will pick up this afternoon and start blowing the snow around.

*** Into this afternoon, snow will fall heavily at times, gusty winds will create blowing snow, visibility will be poor, and driving conditions will be treacherous. ***

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the San Juan and Animas River basins – this includes Pagosa Springs and Durango. Expect a storm total of 6-12” of snow and winds up to 35mph valid until 5pm Sunday. ***

*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the eastern San Juan Mountains for a total of up to 3 feet with the highest amounts near Wolf Creek Pass valid until 11pm Sunday. Winds to 45mph are also likely. ***

Additional snow from 9am to midnight…

Valley: 2-6”

Mountains: 10-18”

NBM 12-hour snowfall from 9am to 9pm today shows 4.4” in Pagosa and up to 18” in our mountains.
NBM 12-hour snowfall from 9am to 9pm today shows 4.4” in Pagosa and up to 18” in our mountains.
NBM forecast radar from 9am to midnight tonight shows the heaviest precip from now to noon and then snow very gradually tapers off and becomes more showery. Snowshowers linger longest over the southeastern part of the county.
NBM forecast radar from 9am to midnight tonight shows the heaviest precip from now to noon and then snow very gradually tapers off and becomes more showery. Snowshowers linger longest over the southeastern part of the county.

Sunday night through Monday morning… We’ll have a lull between storms. Scattered snowshowers will still be possible, mostly over the mountains.

My Snow amounts…

Valley: Up to an inch for the lucky spots, especially the eastern part of the county

Mountains: 1-3”

Monday afternoon to Tuesday evening… The second system will move through and it’s looking pretty similar to the first one.  There’s a chance the bullseye misses us a little to the south, but right now it looks good!

Snowshowers will gradually increase during Monday afternoon, especially over the mountains. The best chance for snow is Monday evening to Tuesday afternoon. Scattered snowshowers will linger into Tuesday night, especially over the mountains and the eastern part of the county.

My Snow amounts…

Valley: 6-12”

Mountains: 12-20”

The WPC 24-hour snowfall valid from Monday at 11pm to Tuesday at 11pm shows 7.6” for Pagosa and up to 18” for our mountains. Temps will be a little cooler with this system so the powdery snow will accumulate more efficiently. Right now this looks like a good forecast.
The WPC 24-hour snowfall valid from Monday at 11pm to Tuesday at 11pm shows 7.6” for Pagosa and up to 18” for our mountains. Temps will be a little cooler with this system so the powdery snow will accumulate more efficiently. Right now this looks like a good forecast.
Euro 24-hour snowfall from Monday at 5pm to Tuesday at 5pm expects 11.5” in Pagosa and around 15” in the mountains. Variance between the different forecast models is 6-15”.
Euro 24-hour snowfall from Monday at 5pm to Tuesday at 5pm expects 11.5” in Pagosa and around 15” in the mountains. Variance between the different forecast models is 6-15”.

Thursday night and Friday… The next system will track northwest to southeast which usually favors northern Colorado, while we just get scraps. There is still a lot of uncertainty. Some forecast models expect the low to track nearly over our heads – not good for us to get snow – while other models keep the low in eastern UT – better for us to get snow. Right now this system has a wide variance of outcomes, but here’s what I expect at this time…

My snow amounts…

Valley: 2-4”

Mountains: 4-8”

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

I will probably do a quick Facebook update this evening, otherwise Mark takes over tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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