Waiting for the low and the trough…


My Pagosa Weather Yardstick is almost buried in snow in our backyard! It’s wired up to a metal fencepost.

Tuesday – 17 Jan. 2023 – Noon

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 32 and the low this morning was 28 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 82%. Winds at the airfield hit 12 mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary…It’s been snowing almost continuously since yesterday morning. 24-hr snow totals ranged 10 inches on 160, about halfway to Wolf Creek and 10.1 inches near the golf course, to 3.5 inches near Chromo. For the first time in a while, most of the heavier snow fell on the north side of the county. Wolf Creek Ski Area received 14 inches of snow yesterday with a 48-hour storm total of 30 inches.

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Snow totals over the past 24 hours ranged from 3.5 to 10.1 inches.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3955/ 19444-26/ 1947
Brought to you by the Springs Resort 1 768x432 1
Thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this upcoming storm!
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We have Winter Storm Warnings in effect for all of our surrounding areas until 5pm this afternoon with the exception of Wolf Creek Pass, which goes until 2am on Wednesday.

Winter Storm Warning for Pagosa Springs through 5pm on this afternoon.

Animas River Basin-San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs 1019 AM MST Tue Jan 17 2023 …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts. * WHERE…Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin. * WHEN…Until 5 PM MST this afternoon.

Winter Storm Warning for Wolf Creek Pass through 2am on Wednesday.

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MST WEDNESDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 20 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…Until 2 AM MST Wednesday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Avalanche Warning:

RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 321 PM MST MON JAN 16 2023 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER. …AVALANCHE WARNING IN EFFECT 5 AM TUESDAY UNTIL 11 PM TUESDAY… *WHAT…Heavy snow and strong winds will result in very dangerous avalanche conditions and a HIGH (Level 4 of 5) avalanche danger on Tuesday *WHERE…South San Juan Mountains including the La Plata Mountains, Rico Mountains, Needle Mountains, areas around Wolf Creek Pass, and the South San Juan Wilderness *WHEN… Expect very dangerous avalanche conditions to develop on Tuesday and last through the evening. *IMPACTS…Large and dangerous avalanches will be very easy to trigger in many places. Avalanches will run naturally.

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Forecast discussion…

The low pressure, trough, and associated cold front are currently to our west, moving our direction, giving us another round of potentially heavy snow showers through this afternoon. There is also the chance for some gusty winds over 20mph this afternoon, making travel a bit tricky. Tonight, the trough moves through, giving us a snow break by Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday, another shortwave will move in from the SW, giving us additional chances for snow on Thursday night and Friday. At this time, this looks like a smaller system with less snow totals.

The rest of today through-Wednesday morning: Cloudy with a chance for 3-5 more inches of snow this afternoon and evening. Highs will be in the upper 20’s to low 30’s. Winds could gust to near 30mph this afternoon and evening as the trough and low-pressure approach from the west around midnight.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with snow showers in the morning. Lows in the teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s

Thursday-Friday: Increasing clouds with snow moving back in on Thursday night and Friday. Lows in the single digits and teens and highs in the upper 20s and low 30’s.

Saturday: Partly Cloudy with lows in the single digits to teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s

Sunday: Partly Cloudy in the morning, turning mostly cloudy in the afternoon with a chance for snow showers. Lows in the single digits to teens and highs in the upper 20’s to low 30’s

Snowfall forecast from this afternoon through Wednesday morning.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 3-5”

Mountains: 5-10”

For Thursday night-Friday:

Valley: 2-4”

Mountains: 4-8”

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The low pressure, trough and cold front are to our west and should move through our area around midnight. Ahead of this system, snow showers will continue along with some wind gusts 20-30mph this afternoon.
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The latest regional radar image (11:30am) shows snow and rain to our SW, moving east. This moisture will continue moving into our area this afternoon. As we all know by now, radar during the winter rarely ever shows snow in our area.
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The latest NWS snowfall model is predicting 9 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs, 9 inches for Chama, NM and 16 inches for Wolf Creek Pass from today through Friday morning. This includes this afternoon’s snow totals and the next system on Thursday night and Friday.

Our 5-Day Forecast…

Pagosa 5 day 1 17 23
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

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This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

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