Perfect weather up at Wolf Creek yesterday. Say hi if you see me on the mountain! – Pic taken 1/12/2023 by Todd
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Friday – 13 Jan 2023 – 7:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 48. The low this morning was 12. The peak wind at the airfield was 5mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 38 | 59 / 1956 | 2 | -42 / 1963 |
Storm summary… There has been no recent precipitation.
Forecast discussion…
Tonight through Saturday afternoon… The upper level ridge will move over our heads this evening. Behind it we’ll see more clouds, but will stay dry, and temps will be above average.
Saturday evening to Sunday night… The first system in a possible series of three will move through. System #1 looks the best – things are lining up for decent snow!
The first few scattered snowshowers will start in the evening, mainly over the mountains. The best chance for snow is midnight tomorrow to Sunday afternoon. Scattered snowshowers will linger into the evening, especially over the mountains.
*** From early Sunday morning to early Sunday afternoon, snow will fall heavily at times, gusty winds will create blowing snow, visibility will be poor, and driving conditions will be treacherous. ***
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the southwest San Juan Mountains for 8-16” of snow and locally higher amounts valid from 5pm Saturday to 11pm Sunday. *** This does not include Pagosa Springs.
Snow amounts…
Valley: 5-10”
Mountains: 12-18”
Here’s a list of snow amounts from other forecast models to Sunday at 11pm: 00z NBM: 11.1”, 18z NBM: 11.2”, 18z GFS: 12.1”, 18z Euro: 7.4”, 12z Canadian: 14.3”, High resolution 18z NAM: 8.2”, 00z HRRR (high resolution): 11.2”. That’s a range of 7.4” to 14.3” and I’m encouraged to see the high resolution models expecting 8-11”. Lately the models have been over-forecasting snow, so for now I’m sticking with the low end of that range.
Sunday night through Monday morning… We’ll have a lull between storms. Scattered snowshowers will still be possible, mostly over the mountains.
Snow amounts…
Valley: Up to an inch for the lucky spots
Mountains: 1-3”
Monday night to Tuesday night… The second system will move through. It won’t have as much moisture as the first, plus the brunt of it might stay a little too far to our south.
Snow amounts…
Valley: 3-6”
Mountains: 8-12”
*** Two Feet of Snow contest – We currently have 14” of snow on the ground here at Pagosa Weather. If system #1 over-produces, we’ll have a contest winner by Sunday evening. If that doesn’t happen, I’m confident we’ll have a winner Monday night or Tuesday morning. Let’s hope we blow right trough 24” and keep going! ***
Thursday and Friday?… We might see another system. The track is more northwest to southeast which usually favors northern Colorado, while we just get scraps. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this one, and right now my expectations are low.
My forecast…
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
My next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
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Pagosa weather updates
You really do a magnificent job with your reports. They are much appreciated.