Pagosa Peak emerging from the clouds this morning – Pic taken 1/11/2023
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Wednesday – 11 Jan 2023 – 4:30pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 38. The low this morning was 27. The peak wind at the airfield was 30mph and we hit 31mph just north of Turkey Springs.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 37 | 59 / 1956 | 2 | -22 / 1962 |
Storm summary… The timing of the storm lined up pretty good with my forecast. My wind forecast was also good. My snow amounts ended up being ok in the valley and too high for the mountains. Starting about 5 days ago for the valley, I forecast 1-3”, then 2-4”, then 2-5”, then back to 1-3”. For the mountains I forecast: 4-6”, 6-10”, 8-12”, 8-12”. The forecast models were all over the place and I was chasing them. This storm fell apart quickly as it moved through the Four Corners region. My initial forecast 5 days ago was the best.
Wolf Creek ended up with 5” for the storm. Reports around 8am in the valley were mostly in the 0.5” to 2” range. By 8am accumulating snow was done for most of the county, but the eastern part of the county added a little more and are likely the snow lottery winners.
Forecast discussion…
Tonight through Saturday afternoon… We’ll see the next round of ridging, dry weather, and above average temps. Temps could be 10 degrees above average on Friday.
Saturday night to Sunday night… The next system will move through, and things are lining up for decent snow.
Snow amounts…
Valley: 4-8”
Mountains: 10-16”
Here are forecast snow amounts for other models: 12Z GFS: 14”, 18Z GFS: 12.2”, 12Z Euro: 8.4”, 12Z Canadian: 11.6”, 12Z GFS ensemble: ~9”, 12Z Euro ensemble: ~10.2”, 12Z Canadian ensemble: ~6.3”. So the range is 6.3” to 14”. Lately the forecast models have been overdoing our precip so for now I’m leaning towards the lower end of that range.
Note: We look at lots of data like this every day. An important part of weather forecasting is verification. By Monday morning when this storm is over, I can verify these forecast totals against what actually happened. Then we can determine which model did best and lean on that model going forward. Verifying our forecasts and verifying forecast models are a never-ending, important part of the forecast process.
Monday through Thursday… The long range models expect the weather pattern to stay active. It’s too early to trust the details, but I like it so far!
If a military commander looked me in the eye this afternoon and asked, “how much snow will we get between Saturday night and Friday morning?”. I’d say town will get 10-15”, folks closer to the mountains 15-20”, and the mountains around 3 feet.
My forecast…
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
My next post will likely be Friday afternoon.
– Shawn
