Weather Warnings are out – Be careful tonight and tomorrow!
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Saturday – 14 Jan 2023 – 5:00pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 45. The low this morning was 19. The peak wind at the airfield was 6mph.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 38 | 53 / 1987 | 4 | -26 / 1963 |
Storm summary… There has been no recent precipitation.
Forecast discussion…
This evening to Sunday night… System #1 will move through. It looks good – things are lining up for decent snow!
The first few scattered snowshowers have already started over the mountains. The best chance for snow is midnight to Sunday afternoon. Scattered snowshowers will linger into Sunday evening, especially over the mountains and the eastern part of the county.
*** From early Sunday morning to Sunday afternoon, snow will fall heavily at times, gusty winds will create blowing snow, visibility will be poor, and driving conditions will be treacherous. ***
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the San Juan and Animas River basins – this includes Pagosa Springs and Durango. Expect 6-12” of snow and winds up to 35mph from 11pm tonight to 5pm Sunday. ***
*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for the eastern San Juan Mountains for up to 22” with the highest amounts near Wolf Creek Pass valid from 5pm this evening to 11pm Sunday. Winds to 45mph are also likely. ***
My Snow amounts…
Near town: 8-12”
Closer to the mountains and the higher mesas south of Hwy 160: 10-16”
Mountains: 18-24”
Sunday night through Monday morning… We’ll have a lull between storms. Scattered snowshowers will still be possible, mostly over the mountains.
My Snow amounts…
Valley: Up to an inch for the lucky spots, especially the eastern part of the county
Mountains: 1-3”
Monday afternoon to Tuesday evening… The second system will move through and it’s looking pretty similar to the first one. There’s a chance the bullseye misses us a little to the south, but right now it looks good!
Snowshowers will gradually increase during Monday afternoon, especially over the mountains. The best chance for snow is late Monday evening to Tuesday afternoon. Scattered snowshowers will linger into Tuesday night, especially over the mountains and the eastern part of the county.
My Snow amounts…
Valley: 5-10”
Mountains: 10-16”
Right now this looks like a good forecast.
However, I think this model is overdoing it and lean more towards the WPC forecast (the map above this one).
Two Feet of Snow contest – We currently have 14” snow on the ground here at Pagosa Weather. System #1 could result in a contest winner by Sunday evening. If that doesn’t happen, I’m confident we’ll have a winner Monday night or Tuesday morning. Let’s hope we blow right trough 24” and keep going!
Thursday night and Friday?… We might see another system. The track is more northwest to southeast which usually favors northern Colorado, while we just get scraps. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this one, and right now my expectations are low.
My forecast…
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
My next post will be tomorrow morning. We’ll have new snow to measure!
– Shawn
