Snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning…

Tommy enjoyed the view as much as we did yesterday – Pic taken 1/7/2023

Tommy enjoyed the view as much as we did yesterday – Pic taken 1/7/2023

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Sunday – 8 Jan 2023 – 5:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 40. The low this morning was 9. The upper Piedra was the cold spot with a low of -10. Most of us stayed above zero. The peak wind at the airfield was 5mph.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3757 / 1956-2-30 / 1913

Precip summary… There has been no recent precipitation.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – More clouds are moving into our area from the west. The trough off the CA coast will move through our area late Wednesday morning.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – More clouds are moving into our area from the west. The trough off the CA coast will move through our area late Wednesday morning.

There is nothing on radar this afternoon in our area.

Tonight through most of tomorrow… The ridge will move over our heads tomorrow afternoon.  Behind the ridge, upper level southwest flow will gradually push more moisture into our area. Spotty snowshowers will develop over the mountains Monday night.  The lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch of snow by Tuesday morning.

Tuesday to Wednesday afternoon… The next system will move through late Wednesday morning.  During the day Tuesday scattered showers are possible, mostly over the mountains. The snow level will pop up to 7,500ft Tuesday afternoon but I think the valley will be mostly dry.

The best chance for snow is late Tuesday evening to around noon on Wednesday with scattered showers a few hours on either side.

Snow amounts…

– Valley: 2-4”

– Mountains: 6-10”

*** Roads will get slick Tuesday night. ***

The NWS snowfall forecast shows 2-5” for Pagosa and up to 8” in our mountains.
The NWS snowfall forecast shows 2-5” for Pagosa and up to 8” in our mountains.
The NWS forecast snowfall model shows 3” for both Pagosa and Chama and up to 10” for our mountains. This looks good to me.
The NWS forecast snowfall model shows 3” for both Pagosa and Chama and up to 10” for our mountains. This looks good to me.

Wednesday night through most of Saturday… We’ll see the next round of ridging, dry weather, and above average temps. Temps could be 10 degrees above average on Friday.

Long range… Another round of storms will move through 15-18 Jan but I have no confidence in the details.

Euro ensemble 4-day precip from 14 Jan at 11pm to 18 Jan at 11pm shows 0.90” of liquid equivalent for Pagosa.  10:1 ratio snow would equal 9” of snow. This is pretty consistent with the other models and looks reasonable at this time.
Euro ensemble 4-day precip from 14 Jan at 11pm to 18 Jan at 11pm shows 0.90” of liquid equivalent for Pagosa.  10:1 ratio snow would equal 9” of snow. This is pretty consistent with the other models and looks reasonable at this time.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

My next post will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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