Today’s storm is about done – next one will be Tuesday night/Wednesday…

A couple of heavy snowshowers hit a few parts of the county this morning – Pic taken 1/6/2023 around 9:30am near Turkey Springs

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Friday – 6 Jan 2023 – 4:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp this afternoon was 35. The low was 17 at 8:15pm last night and then clouds moved in and temps warmed to the mid-20s after midnight. The peak wind at the airfield was 18mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
35	55 / 1956	-1	-37 / 1971

Precip summary… Wolf Creek reported 2” of snow this morning and another 5” since they opened for a total of 7”. We ended up with 1.5” just north of Turkey Springs.

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow totals from this morning range from zero to 0.5”. This does not include snow that fell after 8 or 9am this morning.*

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Northwest flow aloft (green arrows) is keeping clouds along the mountains but we’ll gradually clear out tonight. The ridge to our west will keep us dry through Monday.

Radar this afternoon – Scattered snowshowers are moving towards the southeast. In northwest flow, showers will stay along and on the other side of The Divide. The exception would be the southeast part of the county where showers are lingering on our side of The Divide.

Tonight… Clouds will gradually clear. Patchy fog is possible in low-lying areas.

Saturday through Monday… Ridging will be in control. We’ll see more sun and have dry weather. Temps will be near average.

Tuesday evening to Wednesday afternoon… The next weak system will move through. It will be pretty similar to the one that just finished.

The best chance for snow is late Tuesday evening to around noon on Wednesday with scattered showers a few hours on either side.

Snow amounts…

– Valley: 1-3”

– Mountains: 4-6”

*** Roads will get slick Tuesday night. ***

*Euro model 24-hour snowfall from Tuesday evening to Wednesday evening indicates 2.8” for Pagosa and around 5” in the mountains. The other models are pretty similar. This looks good to me.*

Wednesday night through most of Saturday… We’ll see the next round of ridging, dry weather, and above average temps.

Long range… The weather pattern continues to look more active starting around the 15^th, but there is still a lot of uncertainty. Forecast confidence is low for the details.

Euro, GFS, and Canadian model ensemble total liquid equivalent precip to 21 Jan at 5am – Totals for Pagosa Springs range from 1.21” to 1.68”. 10:1 ratio for snow would equal 12.1” to 16.8”. Note that California continues to hog most of the moisture with liquid equivalent totals in the Sierra Nevadas in the 10-15” range. Let’s hope their reservoirs are filling up! — *Euro, GFS, and Canadian model ensemble total liquid equivalent precip to 21 Jan at 5am – Totals for Pagosa Springs range from 1.21” to 1.68”. 10:1 ratio for snow would equal 12.1” to 16.8”.*
*Note that California continues to hog most of the moisture with liquid equivalent totals in the Sierra Nevadas in the 10-15” range. Let’s hope their reservoirs are filling up!*

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * — ***See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.***
*** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

Unless something significant pops up, my next post will be on Sunday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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