It’s mostly over except for scattered snowshowers through tomorrow afternoon…

That’s a happy a snow dog! – Pic taken 1/2/2023

That’s a happy a snow dog! – Pic taken 1/2/2023

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Monday – 2 Jan 2023 – 5:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp in the last 24 hours was 34. The low this morning was 24. The peak wind at the airfield was 24mph at 12:35am last night.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3454 / 1981-2-37 / 1911

Precip summary… The storm brought a bunch of moisture but the warmer air led to lower snow amounts below 7,500ft.  CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports ranged from zero in Trujillo to 11.2” in O’Neal Park.  Wolf Creek reported 16” of new snow this morning.

LPEA reported quite a few power outages due to the heavy wet snow. We experienced 6 or 7 quick outages in O’Neal Park.  HUGE thanks to the LPEA crews for tackling all those outages!

Another HUGE thanks to our plow folks! We were happily trapped at home until one of our heroes plowed around the neighborhood.

Our snowpack has seen a nice jump! On the left, we were at 70% on 27 December. On the right, we are now at 120% as of 2 January!
Our snowpack has seen a nice jump! On the left, we were at 70% on 27 December.  On the right, we are now at 120% as of 2 January!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – At 2pm on Monday, the low is to our north and the trough is on our doorstep. Both are moving east.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – At 2pm on Monday, the low is to our north and the trough is on our doorstep. Both are moving east.
Radar this afternoon – At 2pm on Monday, scattered showers are rotation counter-clockwise around the low. We’ll continue to see scattered showers into the evening.
Radar this afternoon – At 2pm on Monday, scattered showers are rotating counter-clockwise around the low. We’ll continue to see scattered showers into the evening.

Through this evening… The upper level trough will move through this afternoon. We’ll continue to see occasional snowshowers.

Snowfall forecast…

Valley: Up to 1” but it will be spotty

Mountains: 2-4”

*** Weather warnings and advisories expire this evening.  ***

Tonight through Tuesday evening… We’ll see a slow clearing trend as the system moves slowly east.  Scattered snowshowers will linger, especially over the mountains.

Snowfall forecast…

Valley: Up to 1” but it will be spotty

Mountains: 2-4”

The NWS snow forecast shows 1-2” for Pagosa Springs.
The NWS snow forecast shows 1-2” for Pagosa Springs.

Wednesday through most of Thursday… A ridge will move through, and we’ll see more sun. Temps on Wednesday will still be slightly below average but will warm to slightly above average for Thursday.

Have your cameras ready Wednesday morning. Our Pagosa Country winter wonderland could be on full display!

Thursday night through Friday… The next system will move through.  It won’t have much moisture, so my expectations are low.

Snow forecast…

Valley: 0-2” – it will be spotty

Mountains: 2-4”

Euro snowfall for Thursday night and Friday indicates 1.3” for Pagosa and 3-5” in the mountains. Other forecast models indicate less so my expectations are low.
Euro snowfall for Thursday night and Friday indicates 1.3” for Pagosa and 3-5” in the mountains. Other forecast models indicate less so my expectations are low.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

My next post will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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