Scattered snowshowers today…

Before and after – 22” of snow has fallen since late 27 December!

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Tuesday – 3 Jan 2023 – 10:00am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high temp yesterday afternoon was 30. The low this morning was 24. The peak wind at the airfield was 13mph.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
34	51 / 1981	-1	-32 / 1911

Precip summary… Mostly light snow fell on and off in the last 24 hours, except for our friends near Chromo. Wolf Creek reported another 10” which brings their 7-day total to 52”!

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour snow reports range from 1” to 7.5”. Hillary near Chromo was the snow lottery winner… again!*

Forecast discussion…

*Water vapor satellite this morning – The trough will move through our area this evening. It’s not organized and lacks moisture, but it will cause scattered snowshowers.*

*Radar this morning – Regional radar is only picking up light, shallow precip near the radars. Showers are moving east.*

Today… We’ll continue to see lots of clouds and scattered snowshowers as a weak trough with little moisture moves through this evening.

Snowfall forecast…

Western 2/3 of the county: Up to 1”

Eastern 1/3 of the county: Up to 2”

Mountains: 2-4”

*** There is an AVALANCHE WARNING for the mountains valid until 11pm tonight. Large and dangerous avalanches are likely. ***

*The NWS snow forecast shows less than 1” for Pagosa Springs and 2-4” in our eastern mountains.*

Wednesday through most of Thursday… A ridge will move through, and we’ll see more sun. Temps on Wednesday will still be slightly below average but will warm to slightly above average for Thursday.

Have your cameras ready Wednesday morning. Our Pagosa Country winter wonderland could be on full display!

Thursday night through Friday… The next system will move through. It won’t have much moisture, so my expectations are low.

Snow forecast…

Valley: 0-2” – it will be spotty

Mountains: 2-4”

*NBM snowfall for Thursday night and Friday indicates 1.3” for Pagosa and 2-4” in the mountains. Most of the forecast models are lining up with similar amounts.*

Saturday through most of Tuesday… Ridging will be in control. We’ll see more sun and have dry weather. Temps will be near average.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * — ***See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.***
*** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

My next post will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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4 Responses

Arleen+Pro says:

January 3, 2023 at 6:46 pm

Hi Ernie, thank you for your kind remarks. This is an interesting project. Reminds me of statistics project I did in Fairbanks Alaska on extreme cold temps.
The best place to start is the National Center for Environmental Information:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/land-based-station/us-climate-normals

Good luck!

Arleen

Reply
1. Ernie says:
  
  January 4, 2023 at 8:24 am
  
  Arleen: thanks for the reply. I will check it out. If I run into trouble finding it can I reconnect with you? You guys keep up the good work. Predict more snow, we need it. Thanks again
  Ernie
  
  Reply
  1. Arleen Pro says:
    
    January 4, 2023 at 8:35 am
    
    Yes! Email us at pagosaweather.org
    
    Reply
Ernest OToole says:

January 3, 2023 at 6:20 pm

Not a comment, although I do appreciate your service to the community and applaud you all for your efforts. I rely on your forecasts for my local planning. Thanks so much. I do have a request. I am doing some research on extreme (high and low) temperatures in the US lower 48. Just because it is interesting and fun. I would be happy to share my data if anybody is interested. What I am looking for is a source for the daily highs and lows of all the states. I am pretty sure that NOAA has it some where but I cannot seem to locate it on the internet. Most of my data comes from the National High and Low Temperature Archive but I would like to see a daily archive of temperatures for all of the states. Can you help? Thanks Ernie OToole

Reply