Only the beginning, only just the start…

Snow shoe

Some dedicated snowshoers make their way around Coyote Loop trail this morning!

Wednesday – 28 Dec. 2022 – Noon

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 46 and the low this morning was 32 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 42%. Winds at the airfield hit 7mph yesterday.

310448169 464334978857509 8427265086087382920 n 1
Thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this upcoming storm!

Precipitation summary…Finally there is precipitation to summarize! Most of us found 2-4 inches of snow on the ground this morning. Because those of you living below 7500 feet experienced a rain/snow mix until after midnight, I’m including the liquid totals as well. As forecast, this was a very wet snow with temperatures right around freezing.

Snow 1
COCORAHS snow reports as of this morning.
Screenshot 2022 12 28 104905
COCORAHS liquid precipitation reports as of this morning.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3554/ 19890-25 / 1988
Screenshot 2022 12 27 071936
Our entire area continues to be in Winter Storm Warnings and Avalanche Warnings until Thursday morning.

Winter Storm Warning for Elevations above 6500 feet-includes Pagosa Springs

Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Dove Creek, Mancos, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs 1022 AM MST Wed Dec 28 2022 …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET… * WHAT…Moderate to heavy snow at times, with highest amounts expected above 6500 feet. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, bringing total snow accumulations to 5 to 10 inches with locally higher amounts. * WHERE…Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin. * WHEN…Until 5 AM MST Thursday. * IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the evening commute.

Winter Storm Warning for Wolf Creek Pass:

Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- 359 AM MST Wed Dec 28 2022 …WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST THURSDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet. Locally higher amounts possible on the peaks. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph. * WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…Until 5 AM MST Thursday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

Avalanche Warning:

COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO 359 PM MST TUE DEC 27 2022 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER. …AVALANCHE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4:30 PM TUESDAY UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY… * WHAT…The Avalanche Danger will rise to HIGH (Level 4 of 5) starting Tuesday night and last to Thursday morning. * WHERE…Park Range, Elkhead Mountains, Flat Top Mountains, Ruby Range, Elk Mountains south of divide, West Elk Mountains, Grand Mesa, San Juan Mountains, San Miguel Mountains, Rico Mountains, La Garita Mountains, La Plata Mountains, Needle Mountains, Grenadier Range * WHEN…In effect from 4:30 PM Tuesday, December 27 until 8:00 AM Thursday, December 29. * IMPACTS…Heavy snow and strong winds have created dangerous avalanche conditions in the backcountry. Large and dangerous avalanches will be very easy to trigger. Avalanches will run naturally.

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Forecast discussion…

The rest of today through Thursday morning… A large band of moisture is heading our way from the west and should be here around post time. Behind that is the trough and cold front with convective activity forming out ahead of it. That should reach us later this afternoon or early evening producing a burst of snow and possibly some thunder snow! Colder air behind the front will drop our temperatures into the teens during the night.

Thursday-Saturday: Cooler temps with lows in the single digits and teens and highs in the low to mid 30’s. There will be a chance for snow showers each day with light accumulations of 1-2 inches of snow expected during the period.

Saturday night-Monday: Another trough and more SW flow will give us a good chance for snow through Monday. Best odds for heavier totals will be on Sunday.

Here is my latest snowfall forecast from noon today through tomorrow morning.

– Valley: 2-4 inches of snow with a chance for thundersnow early evening.

– Mountains: 7-12”

Here is my first guess snowfall forecast from Saturday night through Tuesday morning.

– Valley: 7-14 inches of snow.

– Mountains: 12-24”

Screenshot 2022 12 28 110433
A large band of moisture is heading our way from the west and should be here around post time. Behind that is the trough and cold front with convective activity forming out ahead of it. That should reach us later this afternoon or early evening producing a burst of snow and possibly some thunder snow!
Screenshot 2022 12 28 112636
The latest NWS snowfall model is predicting 6 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs, 10 inches for Chama, NM and 12 inches for Wolf Creek Pass from today through Saturday morning.
GFS 8
The latest GFS model is predicting 21.8 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 23.4 inches for Chama, NM through next Tuesday morning. You can subtract around 4 inches from these totals for the snow that is forecast to fall in the next 24 hours.
Euro 5
The latest Euro model is predicting 17.2 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 23.4 inches for Chama, NM through next Tuesday morning. You can subtract around 4 inches from these totals for the snow that is forecast to fall in the next 24 hours.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 12 28 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

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