It’s Showtime!

Tuesday – 27 Dec. 2022 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 41 and the low this morning was 21 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 43%. Winds at the airfield hit 5mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary…There was no precipitation to summarize!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
3760/ 19803-27 / 1911
310448169 464334978857509 8427265086087382920 n 1
Thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this upcoming storm!

Screenshot 2022 12 27 071936
Our entire area is covered in Winter Storm Warnings and Avalanche Watches!

Winter Storm Warning for Elevations above 6500 feet-includes Pagosa Springs

Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin- Including the cities of Dove Creek, Mancos, Durango, Bayfield, Ignacio, and Pagosa Springs 159 AM MST Tue Dec 27 2022 …WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY ABOVE 6500 FEET… * WHAT…Heavy snow possible above 6500 feet. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches possible with locally higher amounts. * WHERE…Four Corners/Upper Dolores River, Animas River Basin and San Juan River Basin. * WHEN…From 8 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

Winter Storm Warning for Wolf Creek Pass:

…WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM MST THURSDAY… * WHAT…Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 feet. Locally higher amounts possible on the peaks. Winds gusting as high as 70 mph. * WHERE…Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…From 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM MST Thursday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Patchy blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

Avalanche Watch:

…AVALANCHE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4:30 PM MONDAY UNTIL 8 AM THURSDAY… *WHAT… Dangerous avalanche conditions are DEVELOPING. Expect the Avalanche Danger to rise to HIGH (Level 4 of 5) by Wednesday afternoon. *WHERE… Park Range, Elkhead Mountains, Flat Top Mountains, Ruby Range, Elk Mountains south of divide, West Elk Mountains, Gand Mesa, San Juan Mountains, San Miguel Mountains, Rico Mountains, La Garita Mountains, La Plata Mountains, Needle Mountains, Grenadier Range *WHEN… Expect dangerous avalanche conditions to begin on Wednesday by about 8:00 AM and last through Thursday at 8:00 AM. *IMPACTS… Heavy snow and strong winds will create dangerous avalanche conditions by Wednesday afternoon. Large and dangerous avalanches will be easy to trigger once the new snow accumulates. Avalanches will run naturally.

Travel Disclaimer: While we would love to help you make decisions on whether to drive over the pass, plan your trip or predict if planes will be able to take off in Durango on a particular date, we don’t have the resources to do so…plus it puts us in potential legal liability if you go flying off Wolf Creek Pass when we suggested it would be a good day to travel! Please use these two links: New Mexico Road Conditions and Colorado Road Conditions. And this one for Durango Airport flight information.

Forecast discussion…

Tonight through Thursday morning… A trough will slowly move in from the west, setting us up for a very wet SW flow. As the first round of precipitation moves in late in the day (after 5pm), snow levels will be at around 8000 feet, so some of the precipitation may start out as light rain, then become a mix, for those of you living below 7500 feet. During the night, the snow level will manage to drop below 7000 feet, allowing for the potential for some decent snow totals for the valley. With temps reaching the mid 30’s on Wednesday, this will be a fairly wet snow, so it will be harder to blow or shovel it off your driveway! The trough and associated cold front will move through on Wednesday night, dropping our temperatures into the teens for night.

Thursday-Saturday: Cooler temps with lows in the single digits and teens and highs in the low to mid 30’s. There will be a chance for snow showers each day with light accumulations of 1-2 inches of snow expected.

Saturday night-Monday: Yet another trough pushes through, giving us a good chance for more snow with totals possibly as high or higher than this storm.

Here is my latest snowfall forecast:

-Valley: Under 7500 feet: Some light rain this afternoon turning to a snow/rain mix until around midnight. Snow totals: 5-10 inches through Thursday morning. Highest totals will be from tonight through Wednesday afternoon.

– Valley: 7500 feet and above: Some snow/rain mix this afternoon, turning to all snow after 8pm. 6-12” from tonight through Thursday morning. Highest totals will be from tonight through Wednesday afternoon.

– Mountains: 15-25”

Screenshot 2022 12 27 082557
A low pressure is currently moving into the Pacific NW, dragging a trough moving our direction. As the day progresses moisture will saturate the mid-levels of our atmosphere from the SW, giving us a great chance for snow tonight through Wednesday.
StormTotalSnow 4
The latest NWS Grand Junction snow forecast through Friday morning.
Screenshot 2022 12 27 080406
The latest NWS snowfall model is predicting 9 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs, 14 inches for Chama, NM and 17 inches for Wolf Creek Pass from tonight through Friday morning.
NBM 6
The latest NBM model predicts 10.3 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 14.4 inches of snow for Chama, NM.
GFS 6
The latest GFS model is predicting 10 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 10.8 inches for Chama, NM through Friday morning.
Euro 3
The latest Euro model is predicting 10.2 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 16.1 inches for Chama, NM. through Friday morning.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 12 27 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

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This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

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