It’s time for a snow dance!

Snow Dance

Monday – 5 Dec. 2022 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 44 and the low this morning was 34 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 67%. Winds at the airfield hit 7mph yesterday.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4367/ 19068-26 / 1955
310448169 464334978857509 8427265086087382920 n
The Springs Resort is sponsoring this upcoming storm…let’s not let them down!

Precipitation summary…Who would think we would be talking about rainfall totals in early December? I almost killed myself taking a rainfall measurement from my COCORAHS gauge on the other side of the driveway this morning, not knowing that there was a layer of ice coating the driveway! I can just imagine my obituary…he passed away while attempting to read his rain gauge! Wolf Creek Ski area reported only an inch of snow over the past 24 hours.

Screenshot 2022 12 05 090058
Some decent rainfall totals over the past 24 hours ranging from 0.09 to 0.45.
It’s time for a snow dance! Thanks to Matt Martin for this great production.

Forecast discussion…

The big low is now just off the coast of northern CA this morning. It will move SE today, then make an eastward turn tomorrow over central CA. At that time, the low will become a trough, setting up a nice flow of upper-level moisture from the SW for late Tuesday and Wednesday.

Now that we are out of the subtropical jet-stream, snow levels have dropped to around 8000 feet today and will drop more tonight as the low-pressure approaches from the west.

The rest of today… Mostly cloudy with a slight chance for snow/rain mix in the valley and snow for the mountains. Highs will reach the 40’s, so no worries of any accumulation today.

Tonight through Tuesday…A chance for snow overnight and Tuesday. Snow levels will drop to below 7000 feet tonight but during the day, they could bounce up above 7000 feet, giving downtown a rain-snow mix. With temps rising to the upper 30’s and low 40’s during the day, I don’t expect much if any accumulation.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night…This will be our best chance for snow as the SW flow sends us plenty of moisture and instability as the trough approaches from the west. We could even experience a few small thundersnow storms during this period! Don’t forget that with our current radar situation, most of the snow will not show up on your radar apps.

My snow forecast from tonight through Thursday morning…

Valley below 7,500ft: 3-6”

Valley above 7,500ft: 5-10”

Mountains: 15-20”

Screenshot 2022 12 05 092724
The Big Low is now just off the coast of northern CA this morning. It will move SE today, then make an eastward turn tomorrow over central CA. At that time, the low will become a trough, setting up a nice flow of upper-level moisture from the SW for late Tuesday and Wednesday.
Screenshot 2022 12 05 082959
The latest NWS snow forecast through Thursday morning. Pagosa Springs is-6 inches of snow and Chama, NM 10 inches.
StormTotalSnow
The latest NWS Grand Junction snow forecast through Thursday morning.
Screenshot 2022 12 05 084250
The latest Euro model is predicting 8 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 13 inches for Chama, NM through Thursday.
NBM
The latest NBM model is predicting 4.3 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 5.5 inches for Chama, NM. through Thursday.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 12 5
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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