It’s Showtime!

Tuesday – 6 Dec. 2022 – 10am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 45 and the low this morning was 34 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 63%. Winds at the airfield hit 9mph yesterday.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4269/ 19068-19 / 1953
310448169 464334978857509 8427265086087382920 n
The Springs Resort is sponsoring this upcoming storm…let’s not let them down!

Precipitation summary…A mix of snow, graupel and light rain started around 7am this morning, so most of what was reported was light. Below are 24-hour snow totals. Wolf Creek Ski area reported 2 inches of snow over the past 24 hours.

Screenshot 2022 12 06 085140
24-hour snow totals as of 8am ranged from a trace to 0.70
Screenshot 2022 12 06 092805
We have Winter Weather Advisories and Avalanche Watches in effect for our area. As of this post time, Pagosa Springs is not included in any watches or warnings.

Winter Weather Advisory for Wolf Creek Pass:

Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- 345 AM MST Tue Dec 6 2022 …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST THURSDAY… * WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 18 inches across the eastern San Juan mountains. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph. * WHERE…La Garita and Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet. * WHEN…Until 6 AM MST Thursday. * IMPACTS…Travel could be very difficult. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

Avalanche Watch:

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER. * WHAT…Avalanche Watch * WHERE…San Juan Mountains, Rico Mountains, La Plata Mountains * WHEN…Expect dangerous avalanche conditions to begin on Tuesday night and last through Wednesday. * IMPACTS… Avalanches will run naturally. Large dangerous human triggered avalanches will be very easy to trigger. * PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…Travel in backcountry avalanche terrain is not recommended on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Check colorado.gov/avalanche for the most up-to-date avalanche conditions.

Winter Weather Advisory for our area above 9000 feet:

Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Including the cities of Telluride, Ouray, Lake City, Silverton, Rico, and Hesperus 457 AM MST Tue Dec 6 2022 …WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MST THURSDAY… * WHAT…Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with locally higher amounts possible. * WHERE…Northwest San Juan Mountains and Southwest San Juan Mountains. * WHEN…Until 6 AM MST Thursday.

Forecast discussion…

The low pressure is just now entering northern CA and will move ESE, then east over the next 48 hours, becoming a trough. Our upper-level flow is now out of the SW and moisture will be increasing. The trough moves through our area on Thursday morning, putting an end to our snow and ushering in some colder temps for Thursday night and Friday. After a break on Friday and Saturday, another system will arrive Sunday…this one has the potential to be even stronger! I’ll dive into next week after we get through this storm.

The rest of today… Mostly cloudy with a chance for snow, graupel and rain mix in the valley and snow for the mountains. Highs will reach the upper 30’s and low 40’s, so no worries of any accumulation during the day. It will be snowing off/on all day in the mountains.

Tonight through Wednesday night…This will be our best chance for snow as the SW flow sends us plenty of moisture and instability as the trough approaches from the west. We could even experience a few small thundersnow storms during this period! Don’t forget that with our current radar situation, most of the snow will not show up on your radar apps.

My snow forecast from tonight through Thursday morning…

Valley below 7,500ft: 3-6”

Valley above 7,500ft: 5-10”

Mountains: 15-20”

Screenshot 2022 12 06 090503
The low pressure is just now entering northern CA and will move ESE, then east over the next 48 hours, becoming a trough. Our upper-level flow is now out of the SW and moisture will be increasing.
Screenshot 2022 12 06 075117
The latest NWS snow forecast through Friday morning. 6 inches of snow is forecast for Pagosa Springs and Chama.
StormTotalSnow 1
The latest NWS Grand Junction snow forecast through Friday morning.
GFS 2
The latest GFS model is predicting 6.5 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 6.4 inches for Chama
Euro
The latest Euro model is predicting 6.7 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 8 inches for Chama, NM through Thursday.
NBM 1
The latest NBM model is predicting 4 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 4 inches for Chama, NM. through Thursday.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 12 6
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

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This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

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