An entertaining week ahead!

Sunset

I shot this cool sunset about a week ago. © 2022-Mark Langford

Sunday – 4 Dec. 2022 – 9:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 44 and the low this morning was 28 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 43%. Winds at the airfield hit 5mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary…There was no precipitation to summarize!

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4464/ 190610-19 / 1952
310448169 464334978857509 8427265086087382920 n
The Springs Resort is sponsoring this upcoming storm…let’s not let them down!

Forecast discussion…

The Big Low to the NW of northern CA will continue to slowly move SE over the next few days, then become a trough as it moves over the Great Basin. Meanwhile, the subtropical jet-stream will bring in warm air aloft through Monday afternoon, giving us mainly a chance for rain through that time period. Snow levels will be very high for this time of the year, staying close to 9500 feet today and most of Monday. Fortunately, Wolf Creek will see snow instead of rain through Thursday and will have a chance for snow each day.

The rest of today… Mostly cloudy with a chance for rain in the valley and light snow for the mountains.

Tonight through Monday afternoon… A chance for some light rain and snow mix tonight through Monday depending on your elevation. Most of us will only see light rain.

Snow amounts from today through Monday:

Valley below 8,000ft: none

Valley above 8,000ft: 0-1”

Mountains above 9,000ft: 2-4”

Screenshot 2022 12 04 080412
The Big Low to the NW of northern CA will continue to slowly move SE over the next few days, then become a trough as it moves over the Great Basin. Meanwhile, the subtropical jet-stream will bring in warm air aloft through Monday afternoon, giving us mainly a chance for rain through that time period.
Screenshot 2022 12 04 084951
The latest NWS snow forecast through Wednesday morning. Since snow is expected to fall through Thursday morning, these numbers are low for the final totals.
StormTotalSnow GJT
The latest NWS Grand Junction snow forecast through Wednesday morning. Since snow is expected to fall through Thursday morning, these numbers are low for the final totals.
GFS
The latest GFS model is predicting 7.4 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 8.5 inches for Chama, NM through Thursday.
NBM Snow 1
The latest NBM model is predicting 5.5 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 5.9 inches for Chama, NM. through Thursday.

By Monday night, the snow levels drop below 7000 feet so we will only be “talking snow” from that point on.

Monday night through Wednesday evening… Things are lining up for a decent snow event. The primary low will sink slowly south along the CA coast and then track across northern AZ/southern UT – a favorable route for us.

We’ll have a prolonged period of upper level southwest flow and waves of moisture.  The best storm energy and moisture will be late Tuesday through Wednesday.

Screenshot 2022 12 04 085120
By Tuesday afternoon, the low pressure will become a trough, giving us a great chance for some snow as our upper-level flow switches into the SW.

My snow forecast from Monday night through Thursday morning…

Valley below 7,500ft: 3-6”

Valley above 7,500ft: 5-10”

Mountains: 15-20”

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 12 4
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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