West Fork Overlook – Pic taken 12/3/2022
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Saturday – 3 Dec 2022 – 4:15pm
At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 48. The low last night was 20. The upper Piedra was the cold spot at 10. The peak wind at the airfield was 21mph.
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|44||70 / 1906||9||-12 / 1931|
Precip summary… Wolf Creek ended up with 4” of new snow from yesterday’s storm.
The rest of today… The band of subtropical moisture will stick with us. Very light precip is possible, mainly over the mountains. The mountains could get a dusting of snow.
Sunday through Monday afternoon… This system has just about gone poof. Each model run has been warmer so this will be mostly a rain event for the valley.
Snow levels will rise to around 9,500ft Sunday afternoon and won’t drop below 8,000ft until possibly Monday evening.
The best chance for precip is Sunday evening through Monday morning with scattered showers a few hours on either side, especially over the mountains.
Valley below 8,000ft: none
Valley above 8,000ft: 0-1”
Mountains above 9,000ft: 2-4”
Monday night through Wednesday evening… Things are lining up for a decent snow event. The primary low will sink slowly south along the CA coast and then track across northern AZ/southern UT – a favorable route for us.
We’ll have a prolonged period of upper level southwest flow and waves of moisture. The best storm energy and moisture will be late Tuesday through Wednesday.
Like most storms with a southwest fetch, forecasting the snow levels will be tricky. They could pop up to around 7,500ft Tuesday afternoon, drop Tuesday night, and then rise to around 7,000ft Wednesday afternoon.
My snow forecast for this period…
Valley below 7,500ft: 3-6”
Valley above 7,500ft: 5-10”
Mark will take over tomorrow.