Pagosa Weather NOVEMBER SUMMARY & December Outlook

Colorado Snowpack – Only the northwest part of the state is near average

Thursday – 1 Dec 2022 – 8pm

November 2022 Summary…

The average low for November is 16 and the average high is 49. The record high of 75 occurred on 2 November 1945. The record low of -18 occurred on 17 November 1907. Precip averages 1.62″ in November with 11.6″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.13″ of liquid equivalent and 54.5″ of snow.

How did we do?

***Temps in November were below average for the entire state. Temps in western Archuleta County were up to 6 degrees below average.***

***Precip in November was below average across Archuleta County. The northwest part of the state did quite well. This is typical of a La Nina pattern.***

CoCoRaHS liquid equivalent precip totals for November range from 0.71″ to 1.86″. Most reports were around 1", well below the average of 1.62″. — ***CoCoRaHS liquid equivalent precip totals for November range from 0.71″ to 1.86″. Most reports were around 1″, well below the average of 1.62″.***

CoCoRaHS snowfall totals for November range from 0.9" to 11.1″. Hillary near Chromo was close to the average of 11.6″, but everybody was below average. — ***CoCoRaHS snowfall totals for November range from 0.9″ to 11.1″. Hillary near Chromo was close to the average of 11.6″, but everybody was below average.***

1 Dec 2022 pm Wolf Creek November and season snowfall totals

Snowpack and Drought…

***Snowpack is good for most of the western US, but not in our area. The northwestern states doing well is typical of a La Nina pattern.***

***The Upper San Juan and Wolf Creek Summit snotels are both at 76% of average snowpack for this time of the year.***

The current drought map looks pretty good for Archuleta County. However, with snowpack at 74%, we'll start going backwards if the snow doesn't start falling. — ***The current drought map looks pretty good for Archuleta County. However, with snowpack at 74%, we’ll start going backwards if the snow doesn’t start falling.***

December Outlook…

The average low for December is 5 and the average high is 39. The record high of 70 occurred on 3 December 1906. The record low of -35 occurred on 19 December 1909. Precip averages 1.89″ in December with 22.6″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.42″ of liquid equivalent and 78.7″ of snow.

***The Climate Prediction Center’s December outlook for precip expects “equal chances” for normal precip.***

On the left, the Euro ensemble precip indicates 3.37". On the right, the GFS ensemble indicates 2.59". Both are above the average of 1.89". — ***On the left, the Euro ensemble precip indicates 3.37″. On the right, the GFS ensemble indicates 2.59″. Both are above the average of 1.89″.***

And what do we expect?

Arleen is the expert and this is what she thinks…

December will start out active with an active MJO tempering the strong La Nina for the first 10 days to two weeks. The second week to the third week in December will be quiet and reflect a typical La Nina pattern. However, it looks like the MJO will visit us the last week in December for hopefully, a white Christmas.

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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