Slopes were empty and the snow was decent up at Wolf Creek yesterday – Pic taken 11/30/2022
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Thursday – 1 Dec 2022 – 11:45am
The Past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 43. The low this morning was 17 and the cold spot was the upper Piedra at 4. Winds peaked at 6mph at the airfield yesterday.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 44 | 65 / 1906 | 10 | -12 / 1975 |
Precip summary… There was no precip in the last 24 hours.
Forecast discussion…
There is nothing on radar in our region this morning.
Through this evening… Winds and clouds will increase but we’ll stay dry.
Tonight through tomorrow afternoon… The bad news: The low pressure system will take a similar track to the last one. Again the best moisture and energy will stay to our north and we’ll get scraps as the tail-end of the trough moves through. This system has more moisture but my expectations are low for us.
The best chance for precip is 5am to 11am with spotty snowshowers a few hours on either side, especially over the mountains.
The easy forecast is the strong winds. They’ll pick up overnight and peak around 35mph around noon tomorrow when the system moves through.
My snow forecast…
Valley: 0.5” to 2”
Mountains: 3-6”
*** 5am-11am tomorrow there will be periods of moderate to heavy snow, blowing snow, bad visibility, and poor driving conditions. ***
*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the southwest San Juan Mountains for 3-6” of snow and winds to 60mph valid Friday 6am to 5pm. *** This advisory does not have an elevation. I expect less than 3” in the Pagosa Springs area and winds less than 60mph.
*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft for 3-6” and winds gusting to 70mph valid Friday 5am to 5pm. *** This includes Wolf Creek and I agree with this advisory.
Saturday… We’ll be between systems with a few scattered snowshowers, mainly over the mountains. “If you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes!”
Snow amounts:
Valley: Up to a half inch in a few lucky spots
Mountains: 1-2” but it will be spotty
Sunday through Monday… The bad news: This system is expected to split and is trending weaker for us. If it splits much more, it will be another dud for us. And sadly, it will be primarily a rain event in the valley.
Snow levels will pop above 8,500ft Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening resulting in rain for all of us. As snow levels lower below 8,000ft after midnight, moisture will be decreasing.
The best chance for precip is Sunday evening through Monday morning with scattered showers a few hours on either side, especially over the mountains.
Snow amounts:
Valley below 8,000ft: Up to an inch
Valley above 8,000ft: 1-2”
Mountains above 9,000ft: 3-6”
Beyond Monday… The good news: The weather pattern will stay active for a while. Our luck is bound to change!
My forecast…
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
I’ll post the November summary and December outlook later today.
My next forecast post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
