That one was a dud – How about the next one? …

Tommy and Charlie enjoyed the brief burst of snow this morning – Pic taken 11/29/2022

Tommy and Charlie enjoyed the brief burst of snow this morning – Pic taken 11/29/2022

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Tuesday – 29 Nov 2022 – 6:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 41 and today we hit 32. The low this morning was 27. As of 6pm, the temp at the airfield is already down to 24. Winds at the airfield peaked at 35mph today. Winds on the Wolf Creek summit/Lobo Overlook sensor peaked at 56mph. Wind chills up there this afternoon were in the -20 to -25 range – brrrrr!

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4458 / 197310-25 / 1952

Precip summary… Snow started this morning about when most of the CoCoRaHS observers do their daily reports. Snow totals will be in tomorrow’s reports, but I expect they’ll be under a half inch – disappointing.  Wolf Creek reported 2” this morning – also disappointing.

The central and northern Colorado mountains did quite well.  The Colorado Avalanche Information Center reported up to 20” and issued an avalanche warning for a few mountain ranges.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The trough moved through this morning and kicked up a brief period of snowshowers. Upper level flow behind the trough is northwest and considerably more dry. The ridge along the West Coast will give us dry weather until late Thursday.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The trough moved through this morning and kicked up a brief period of snowshowers. Upper level flow behind the trough is northwest and considerably more dry. The ridge along the West Coast will give us dry weather until late Thursday.

There is nothing on radar in our region this afternoon.

This evening through Thursday evening… Another transient ridge will move through with drier air. Tomorrow morning will be the coldest of the season so far. The cold spots could dip below zero – brrrr.

Thursday night through Monday evening… An active and complicated pattern is setting up. The big subtropical high over the Gulf will slowly weaken and move south.  This will allow the West Coast systems to drop a little farther south before they move into our area.

Two troughs are expected. The first will move through Friday evening and take a similar track as today’s system.  The second will move through Monday evening and take a more southerly, more favorable route.

Upper level flow will stay primarily out of the southwest with a few brief periods of more westerly flow. Southwest flow will continue to push waves of moisture and energy through our area while the brief periods of westerly flow will give us a bit of a break.  Unfortunately the southwest flow will also push periods of warmer air in too.

It’s going to be a complicated forecast with snow levels bouncing around. Precip will fall on and off and be mostly light.  But the long duration, nearly 4 days, will result in accumulating snow. 

*The best chances for precip are sunrise to sunset on Friday and Sunday afternoon to Monday evening. Saturday will be a lull with scattered showers. Snow levels will be at their highest on Sunday afternoon up to 8,500ft.*

My initial snow forecast for Friday through Monday evening…

Valley below 7,500ft: 2-4”

Valley above 7,500ft: 4-8”

Mountains: 15-20”

*** This snow will fall over a four day period mixed with intervals of afternoon rain. Snow amounts will vary considerably and are dependent on the surges of warmer air. ***

NBM liquid equivalent precip through Monday at 11pm – It shows 1.03” of liquid equivalent for Pagosa Springs and up to 2” in our mountains. Because of the waves of warmer air, some of that 1.03” will fall as rain.
NBM liquid equivalent precip through Monday at 11pm – It shows 1.03” of liquid equivalent for Pagosa Springs and up to 2” in our mountains. Because of the waves of warmer air, some of that 1.03” will fall as rain.
NBM forecast snow through Monday at 11pm – It shows 3.8” in town and 15-20” in our mountains. At this point, I agree with this forecast. The snow level will bounce around which will make a big difference for snow amounts in the valley.  Folks above 8,000ft could get double that 3.8” expected near town.
NBM forecast snow through Monday at 11pm – It shows 3.8” in town and 15-20” in our mountains. At this point, I agree with this forecast. The snow level will bounce around which will make a big difference for snow amounts in the valley.  Folks above 8,000ft could get double that 3.8” expected near town.
The NWS forecast table for Plumtaw Road, elevation 9,000ft – Friday and Saturday are on the top and Sunday and Monday are on the bottom – I highlighted temps and snow levels.  The snow levels are expected to rise each afternoon and peak on Sunday afternoon around 8,500ft. Temps are also expected to be above of freezing each afternoon. This will result in periods of rain or heavy wet snow that will have trouble accumulating. I didn’t highlight it, but also check out the rainfall and snowfall amounts.  6-hour precip amounts are light – mostly less than 0.10” rainfall, except for Sunday night when they peak at 0.14”. *Reminder: This is a forecast product and will not be exact.*
The NWS forecast table for Plumtaw Road, elevation 9,000ft – Friday and Saturday are on the top and Sunday and Monday are on the bottom – I highlighted temps and snow levels. 

The snow levels are expected to rise each afternoon and peak on Sunday afternoon around 8,500ft. Temps are also expected to be above of freezing each afternoon. This will result in periods of rain or heavy wet snow that will have trouble accumulating.

I didn’t highlight it, but also check out the rainfall and snowfall amounts.  6-hour precip amounts are light – mostly less than 0.10” rainfall, except for Sunday night when it peaks at 0.14”.

*Reminder: This is a forecast product and will not be exact.*

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

Giving Tuesday…

Today is Giving Tuesday, a reminder to give to your favorite nonprofit organizations during the holidays. Pagosa Weather has been an approved nonprofit for two years. It will be another three years (five year requirement) before you see us listed on the Colorado Giving Tuesday website.

If you would like to give to us, please follow the link to our web page where you can make a donation via PayPal or a donation via Square: https://pagosaweather.org/support-pagosa-weather/

Or you can send a check to:

Pagosa Weather: 135-F Country Center Dr #142 Pagosa Springs, CO 81147

All donations go directly towards paying for commercial weather subscriptions, the web page, web site administrator, and other business expenses. Arleen, Shawn and Mark are volunteers and do not receive a salary for our services. Thank you!

My next post will be Thursday morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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