Roads could be slick tomorrow …

Toner Mountain at sunset – Pic taken 11/27/2022

Toner Mountain at sunset – Pic taken 11/27/2022

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Monday – 28 Nov 2022 – 10:20am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 45. The low this morning was 14.  The cold spots dipped into the mid-single digits. Winds at the airfield hit 7mph yesterday afternoon.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4461 / 196610-15 / 1952

Precip summary… Sunday morning many of us got at least a dusting of snow.  Wolf Creek ended up with 2”.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall on Sunday morning ranged from 0.1” to 1.5”. Hillary was the snow lottery winner near Chromo!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall on Sunday morning ranged from 0.1” to 1.5”. Hillary was the snow lottery winner near Chromo!

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – I had to look hard to find the trough this morning. It’s quite weak. It will strengthen a bit as it dips southeast and gets a little help from the jet stream. The northwest to southeast trajectory will favor the northern Colorado mountains – we’ll catch the tail end and get scraps. Currently  we have a lot of high cirrus clouds streaming into our area from the southwest.
Water vapor satellite this morning – I had to look hard to find the trough this morning. It’s quite weak. It will strengthen a bit as it dips southeast and gets a little help from the jet stream. The northwest to southeast trajectory will favor the northern Colorado mountains – we’ll catch the tail end and get scraps. Currently we have a lot of high cirrus clouds streaming into our area from the southwest.
Radar this morning – There isn’t much precip associated the system.
Radar this morning – There isn’t much precip associated the system.

Most of today… Clouds and winds will increase through the day as the next system approaches.

Late this evening through Tuesday afternoon… We’ll catch the tail end of the trough as it moves through our area tomorrow morning.  The best storm energy, moisture, and wind direction will favor areas to our north. Our best chance for snow is 2am to 10am with scattered showers a few hours on either side, especially over the mountains.

*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft, which includes Wolf Creek Pass.  The advisory is for up to 9” of snow and winds gusting 60-70mph valid from 5pm today to 5pm tomorrow. ***

*** Falling snow, gusty winds, blowing snow, and poor visibility will make driving conditions sketchy at times. ***

The Grand Junction NWS has also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the southwest San Juan Mountains but it does not indicate an elevation. It’s for 4-8” and winds to 45mph valid from 5pm today to 5pm tomorrow. I see potential for folks tucked up close to the mountains to get 4”, but most of the Pagosa Springs area will get less.

My snow forecast:

Valley: 1-3”

Mountains: 6-10”

The NWS snowfall forecast shows 2-3” for Pagosa Springs and up to 10”in our mountains.
The NWS snowfall forecast shows 2-3” for Pagosa Springs and up to 10”in our mountains.

Tuesday evening through Thursday evening… Another transient ridge will move through with drier air. Wednesday morning will be the coldest of the season so far – brrrr.

Thursday night through Monday afternoon… An active and complicated pattern is setting up. The big subtropical high over the Gulf will slowly weaken and move south.  This will allow the West Coast systems to drop a little farther south before they move into our area.

Two troughs are expected to move through: The first will be Friday evening and the second is Monday afternoon. Upper level flow will primarily stay out of the southwest with a few brief periods of more westerly flow. Southwest flow will continue to push waves of moisture and energy through our area while the brief periods of westerly flow will give us a bit of break.  Unfortunately the southwest flow will also push periods of warmer air in too.

It’s going to be a complicated forecast with snow levels bouncing around. Sadly some of us will get the dreaded “r” word. Precip will start slowly Thursday night with a few snow flurries and then ramp up through Friday. The snow level will climb to 8,000ft by Friday afternoon. I’ll tackle snow amounts, snow levels, and timing in tomorrow’s post.

NBM liquid equivalent precip through next Monday at 11pm – The Coastal mountain ranges are expected to do quite well because of the west to east to trajectory of the systems. Colorado is expected to get about half of the precip of the Sierra Nevadas. In Colorado, the northern mountains are favored over us. Currently, this model is a good average of all the models.  It shows 1.17” of liquid equivalent for Pagosa Springs and up to 2.5” in our mountains. Because of the waves of warmer air, some of that 1.17” will fall as rain.
NBM liquid equivalent precip through next Monday at 11pm – The Coastal mountain ranges are expected to do quite well because of the west to east trajectory of the systems. Colorado is expected to get about half of the precip of the Sierra Nevadas. In Colorado, the northern mountains are favored over us.

Currently, this model is a good average of all the models.  It shows 1.17” of liquid equivalent for Pagosa Springs and up to 2.5” in our mountains. Because of the waves of warmer air, some of that 1.17” will fall as rain.
NBM forecast snow through Monday at 11pm focused on Colorado – It shows 5.1” in town and 20-28” in our mountains. At this point, I agree with this forecast. The snow level will bounce around which will make a big difference for snow amounts in the valley.  Folks above 8,000ft could get double that 5.1” expected near town. The Elk Range between Aspen and Crested Butte is expected to be the big snow winners.
NBM forecast snow through Monday at 11pm focused on Colorado – It shows 5.1” in town and 20-28” in our mountains. At this point, I agree with this forecast.

The snow level will bounce around which will make a big difference for snow amounts in the valley.  Folks above 8,000ft could get double that 5.1” expected near town. The Elk Range between Aspen and Crested Butte is expected to be the big snow winners.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Picture of Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon