Toner Mountain at sunset – Pic taken 11/27/2022
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Monday – 28 Nov 2022 – 10:20am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 45. The low this morning was 14. The cold spots dipped into the mid-single digits. Winds at the airfield hit 7mph yesterday afternoon.
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 44 | 61 / 1966 | 10 | -15 / 1952 |
Precip summary… Sunday morning many of us got at least a dusting of snow. Wolf Creek ended up with 2”.
Forecast discussion…
Most of today… Clouds and winds will increase through the day as the next system approaches.
Late this evening through Tuesday afternoon… We’ll catch the tail end of the trough as it moves through our area tomorrow morning. The best storm energy, moisture, and wind direction will favor areas to our north. Our best chance for snow is 2am to 10am with scattered showers a few hours on either side, especially over the mountains.
*** The Pueblo NWS has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the eastern San Juan Mountains above 10,000ft, which includes Wolf Creek Pass. The advisory is for up to 9” of snow and winds gusting 60-70mph valid from 5pm today to 5pm tomorrow. ***
*** Falling snow, gusty winds, blowing snow, and poor visibility will make driving conditions sketchy at times. ***
The Grand Junction NWS has also issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the southwest San Juan Mountains but it does not indicate an elevation. It’s for 4-8” and winds to 45mph valid from 5pm today to 5pm tomorrow. I see potential for folks tucked up close to the mountains to get 4”, but most of the Pagosa Springs area will get less.
My snow forecast:
Valley: 1-3”
Mountains: 6-10”
Tuesday evening through Thursday evening… Another transient ridge will move through with drier air. Wednesday morning will be the coldest of the season so far – brrrr.
Thursday night through Monday afternoon… An active and complicated pattern is setting up. The big subtropical high over the Gulf will slowly weaken and move south. This will allow the West Coast systems to drop a little farther south before they move into our area.
Two troughs are expected to move through: The first will be Friday evening and the second is Monday afternoon. Upper level flow will primarily stay out of the southwest with a few brief periods of more westerly flow. Southwest flow will continue to push waves of moisture and energy through our area while the brief periods of westerly flow will give us a bit of break. Unfortunately the southwest flow will also push periods of warmer air in too.
It’s going to be a complicated forecast with snow levels bouncing around. Sadly some of us will get the dreaded “r” word. Precip will start slowly Thursday night with a few snow flurries and then ramp up through Friday. The snow level will climb to 8,000ft by Friday afternoon. I’ll tackle snow amounts, snow levels, and timing in tomorrow’s post.
Currently, this model is a good average of all the models. It shows 1.17” of liquid equivalent for Pagosa Springs and up to 2.5” in our mountains. Because of the waves of warmer air, some of that 1.17” will fall as rain.
The snow level will bounce around which will make a big difference for snow amounts in the valley. Folks above 8,000ft could get double that 5.1” expected near town. The Elk Range between Aspen and Crested Butte is expected to be the big snow winners.
My forecast…
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
My next post will be tomorrow.
– Shawn
