A little mountain snow tonight – more snow Monday night & Tuesday morning …

The Piedra River is always enchanting! – Pic taken 11/26/2022

The Piedra River is always enchanting! – Pic taken 11/26/2022

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Saturday – 26 Nov 2022 – 5:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 48 and today we hit 45. The low this morning was 16.  The cold spots dipped into the mid-single digits. Winds at the airfield hit 8mph yesterday afternoon and have hit 7mph today.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4464 / 194312-20 / 1952

Precip summary… There has been no recent precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The trough will move through Colorado quickly tonight and kick up scattered snowshowers in our area in the early morning hours.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The trough will move through Colorado quickly tonight and kick up scattered snowshowers in our area in the early morning hours.
Radar this afternoon – The trough is draped across western UT.  Scattered showers are moving east with the trough.
Radar this afternoon – The trough is draped across western UT.  Scattered showers are moving east with the trough.

Tonight… A fast-moving system will track northwest to southeast across Colorado and bring more clouds and scattered snowshowers. Our mountains will get 1-2” of new snow and a dusting is possible in the valley, especially closer to the mountains.

NAM forecast radar loop shows the snow moving from the northwest to the southeast across Colorado.  This isn’t a good trajectory for us. The best chance for snow is 11pm tonight to 4am tomorrow.
NAM forecast radar loop shows the snow moving from the northwest to the southeast across Colorado.  This isn’t a good trajectory for us. The best chance for snow is 11pm tonight to 4am tomorrow.
The NWS snow forecast shows up to an inch in our mountains.
The NWS snow forecast shows up to an inch in our mountains. Note the Steamboat area is favored.

Sunday… A transient ridge and dry northwest flow will give us a sunny day, but temps will be about 5 degrees cooler.

Most of Monday… Clouds and winds will increase through the day as the next system approaches.

Late Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon… Unfortunately the low pressure system is now expected to have a more northwest trajectory and snow amounts have trended down in our area. The best chance for snow is 2am to 10am with scattered showers a few hours on either side, especially over the mountains.

*** Falling snow, gusty winds, blowing snow, and poor visibility will make driving conditions sketchy at times. ***

My snow forecast:

Valley: 1-3”

Mountains: 6-10”

NBM snowfall to Tuesday at 5pm shows 2.5” for Pagosa Springs and up to 8”in our mountains.
NBM snowfall to Tuesday at 5pm shows 2.5” for Pagosa Springs and up to 8”in our mountains.

Tuesday evening through Thursday evening… Another transient ridge will move through with drier air. Wednesday morning will be the coldest of the season so far – brrrrr.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

My next post will be on Monday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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