Happy Thanksgiving!
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Thanksgiving – 24 Nov 2022 – 11:40am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 42. The low this morning was 24. Most of us had lows in the mid to high 20s – 5-10 degrees warmer than I expected. Winds at the airfield hit 16mph yesterday afternoon. Our winds in O’Neal Park consistently gusted to 20mph most of the night.
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
46 | 61 / 1943 | 12 | -20 / 1931 |
Precip summary… Most reports were zero but two CoCoRaHS reports indicated a trace of snow. Wolf Creek reported 2” of new snow – a little better than the dusting I expected.
Forecast discussion…


Today to Monday afternoon… First the low will slide farther to the south and ridging will build in from the north. Then Saturday night, a fast-moving system will track northwest to southeast across Colorado. That will bring more clouds and a few mountain snowflakes. Winds and clouds will start increasing Monday afternoon ahead of the next system.
*** Travelers need to keep an eye on road conditions for Le Veta and Raton Passes today, and on eastern NM and far western TX through tomorrow. ***

Monday evening through Tuesday… Our streak of dry weather will end! A low pressure system will move through with a more favorable trajectory. Three out of the four primary forecast models are trending down while the other is holding steady so forecast confidence is shaky.
For now I’m sticking with my initial snow forecast:
Valley: 2-4”
Mountains: 10-15”
As always, I’ll adjust timing and snow amounts as the data gets better.

Amounts and trends… NBM: 0.22” and the trend is down slightly – Euro: 0.32”and the trend is steady – GFS: 0.08” and the trend is down considerably – Canadian: 0.18” and the trend is down. Three of the four models show a decreasing trend, but I’ll stick with my forecast for now.
Note: For this system I’m thinking a 10:1 snow ratio for the valley and 15:1 for the mountains. Based on these four models, that equals a range of 0.8” to 3.2” of snow for Pagosa Springs.
My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
My next post will be on Saturday.
– Shawn