A few mountain snowflakes tomorrow night …

Another beautiful morning up at Wolf Creek!

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Tuesday – 22 Nov 2022 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 49. The low this morning was 16. The upper Piedra was the cold spot with a low of 3. Winds at the airfield hit 6mph yesterday afternoon.

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
46	60 / 1989	13	-8 / 1985

Precip summary… There has been no recent precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – There are lots of high cirrus clouds over the Four Corners region. The low is expected to track north to south across eastern Colorado and will strengthen as it does. It will slow down when it moves through eastern NM and the TX panhandle and cause travel problems in that area Thursday evening and Friday.

There is nothing on radar this morning.

Wednesday night… A fast moving system will move north to south through eastern Colorado. It will intensify as it moves south but won’t have much moisture as it moves through Colorado. I don’t expect any snow in the valley, but our mountains could get a dusting.

*** Travelers need to keep an eye on road conditions for Le Veta and Raton Passes Wednesday night and Thursday. And then Thursday evening and Friday eastern NM and the TX panhandle could get decent snow and poor driving conditions. ***

NBM snowfall to Saturday at 5am – It shows a trace of snow for our mountains tomorrow night. 1-3” are possible for Le Veta Pass and especially Raton Pass. Eastern NM and the TX panhandle could get decent snow which would result in poor driving conditions Thursday evening through Friday.

Thanksgiving through most of Monday… We’ll see a transient pattern with first a ridge, and then a system missing us to the north. Afternoon winds will pick up a little and there will be more clouds, but we’ll stay dry.

Late Monday evening through Tuesday… Our streak of dry weather will end! A decent system will finally favor us.

Timing and snow amounts are still uncertain but here’s my initial rough guess…

Valley: 2-4”

Mountains: 10-15”

As always, I’ll adjust timing and snow amounts as the data gets better.

Liquid equivalent precipitation through next Tuesday at 11pm for the NBM, Euro ensemble, GFS ensemble, and Canadian model ensemble. Amounts range from a low of 0.29” for the Euro to a high of 0.87” for the GFS. Right now I’m leaning toward the low end of that range but will gladly bump up my snow totals if the models trend upward! Note: For this system I’m thinking a 10:1 snow ratio for the valley and 15:1 for the mountains. Based on these four models, that equals a range of 2.9” to 8.7” of snow for the valley. — *Liquid equivalent precipitation through next Tuesday at 11pm for the NBM, Euro ensemble, GFS ensemble, and Canadian model ensemble.*
Amounts range from a low of 0.29” for the Euro to a high of 0.87” for the GFS. Right now I’m leaning toward the low end of that range but will gladly bump up my snow totals if the models trend upward!

*Note: For this system I’m thinking a 10:1 snow ratio for the valley and 15:1 for the mountains. Based on these four models, that equals a range of 2.9” to 8.7” of snow for the valley.*

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * — ***See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.***
*** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***

My next post will be on Thursday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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