Cold in the short term, warming next week…

Red Rock

I shot this image a week ago at Red Rock Canyon while we were visiting our youngest daughter who lives in Las Vegas, NV. Vegas offers a lot of “away from the strip” outdoor activities…especially in late fall through early spring when temperatures are reasonable! © 2022-Mark Langford

Fri – 18 Nov 2022 – 9:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 38 and the low this morning was 16 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 28%. Winds at the airfield hit 7mph yesterday. Lows were in the single digits and teens this morning for most of our area.

Precipitation summary…There was no precipitation to summarize!

Forecast discussion…

A trough and cold front will move through our area today, with little fanfare, other than a few high clouds. Look for continued below normal temperatures this weekend, but with high pressure building next week, temperatures will climb to above normal by the middle of next week. As of this post, Thanksgiving looks mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 40’s and lows in the teens.

Looking down the road, I’m still not finding any decent snow events through the rest of the month…hopefully Shawn can find something when he takes over on Sunday!

Screenshot 2022 11 18 084144
Temperatures will rebound to above normal by early next week through Thanksgiving.
Screenshot 2022 11 18 082737
An approaching trough and cold front are produced some high clouds this morning, but no precipitation. The trough and front move through by tonight, ushering in more cold air for the weekend.
Screenshot 2022 11 18 081209
I ran the GFS model through the 4th of December and it is not forecasting any snow during that time period.
Screenshot 2022 11 18 081242
I ran the NBM model through the 29th and this is all of the snow it could find during that time period.
Screenshot 2022 11 18 080935
The latest 6-10 day forecast looks warmer than average and odds for precipitation look low.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 11 18 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4764/ 194314-15 / 1958

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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