Quiet until around the 29th …

Bruno is looking for a home! He’s a 3-year old German Shepherd mix. He’s leery around people he doesn’t know, but once you earn his trust, he’s an amazing companion.  This smart boy is great on a leash, knows lots of commands, and loves to shake hands. Introduce yourself slowly to this guy and he won’t leave your side!  Please visit the Pagosa Springs Humane Society or call them at (970) 731-4771 to learn more about Bruno.

Bruno is looking for a home! He’s a 3-year old German Shepherd mix. He’s leery around people he doesn’t know, but once you earn his trust, he’s an amazing companion.  This smart boy is great on a leash, knows lots of commands, and loves to shake hands. Introduce yourself slowly to this guy and he won’t leave your side!  Please visit the Pagosa Springs Humane Society or call them at (970) 731-4771 to learn more about Bruno.

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Sunday – 20 Nov 2022 – 3:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 42 and the warmest so far today has been 44. The low this morning was 13.  The cold spots dipped into the mid-single digits. Winds at the airfield hit 7mph yesterday afternoon.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
4663 / 198913-7 / 1985

Precip summary… There has been no recent precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – There is a big ridge across much of the western US. That little trough over eastern WA will stay well to our north and have no impact on our weather.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – There is a big ridge across much of the western US. That little trough over eastern WA will stay well to our north and have no impact on our weather.

There is nothing on radar this afternoon.

The next 7-8 days… Ridging will give us a good amount of sun and dry weather. Temps will be near average through Thursday and then slightly above average Friday-Sunday.

Changes around the 29th?… Long range forecast models are hinting at a more active pattern the last few days of November and maybe into the first week of December. Right now I don’t see a big system for us, but a more active pattern gives me hope!

GFS ensemble 500mb height anomalies from 25 Nov at 5am to 4 Dec at 5am – 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall pattern. Cold colors, blue and purple, indicate troughing and an active pattern.  Warm colors, yellow and orange, indicate ridging and an inactive pattern. We start with a strong ridge over the western US.  Then a low pressure system develops off the Pacific NW coast and moves through Colorado on 29 & 30 Nov. Note that the trajectory is from the northwest towards the southeast – a track that does not favor us. If the system dips a little farther south, we’ll do better.  If it tracks a little farther north, we’ll just get scraps.
GFS ensemble 500mb height anomalies from 25 Nov at 5am to 4 Dec at 5am – 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and is a good level to track the overall pattern. Cold colors, blue and purple, indicate troughing and an active pattern.  Warm colors, yellow and orange, indicate ridging and an inactive pattern.
We start with a strong ridge over the western US.  Then a low pressure system develops off the Pacific NW coast and moves through Colorado on 29 & 30 Nov. Note that the trajectory is from the northwest towards the southeast – a track that does not favor us. If the system dips a little farther south, we’ll do better.  If it tracks a little farther north, we’ll just get scraps.

Below are Euro, GFS, and Canadian model ensemble meteograms for forecast snowfall for 24-hour periods – This is one of my favorite products and I track it closely all winter long. It’s read left to right with the most current time on the left.  Times are in Zulu. The top chart shows snowfall amounts for 24-hour periods for a number of model runs. Similar amounts and similar times for the different versions results in higher forecast confidence. The bottom chart shows the range of the amounts. I focus on the little vertical light blue boxes, the green “mean” line, and to a lesser extent, the blue “control” line. I closely track the differences and the trends.

Euro ensemble 24-hour snowfall for Pagosa Springs
Euro ensemble 24-hour snowfall for Pagosa Springs
GFS ensemble 24-hour snowfall for Pagosa Springs
GFS ensemble 24-hour snowfall for Pagosa Springs
Canadian ensemble 24-hour snowfall for Pagosa Springs
Canadian model ensemble 24-hour snowfall for Pagosa Springs

The average snowfall for all three models is 2-3”, but the outcomes vary considerably from zero to 18”. This system is 9 days away – too far into the future to get caught up in the details, but it’s good to see a more active pattern with some potential!

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *

My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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