Colder than normal with no signs of a big snow event…

Weds – 16 Nov 2022 – 9:am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 35 and the low this morning was 13 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 44%. Winds at the airfield hit 9mph yesterday. Lows were in the single digits and teens this morning for most of our area.

Screenshot 2022 11 16 071515 — Low temperatures this morning ranged from 3 degrees near Wolf Creek Pass to 17 degrees SW of town. Unless a new hot spring has formed, I’m thinking something is off with the 64 degrees weather station! *Maybe a mountain lion fell asleep on the thermometer?*

Precipitation summary…Wolf Creek Ski area reported 2 inches of fresh power on Monday after my post, and there were snow showers over Pagosa Peak yesterday. My Little Siberian weather station about a mile north of Hatcher Lake, recorded the lowest temperature in the county this morning (5 degrees)!

Forecast discussion…

Cold temperatures are the main subject this week, with lows and highs running below normal. A booster shot of colder air will arrive on Friday, keeping us below normal through early next week. By Thanksgiving, we could find our temperatures above seasonal averages based on the latest model runs.

gfs deterministic colorado t2m f anom 8621600

We are currently in a northerly flow aloft through Friday, when a shortwave and cold front move through our area, shifting us a to a NW flow and giving our mountains a slight chance for more snow. As of today, I’m only seeing a continuation of below normal temperatures and no major snow events for the next week or possibly longer. Fortunately, the snowpack is running above average for this time of the year for most of the west.

Screenshot 2022 11 16 080028 — *We are in a dry northerly flow through Friday, when a cold front and a switch to a NW flow will give our mountains a tiny chance for snow.*

Screenshot 2022 11 16 074339 — *There is a chance for some light snow on Friday for our mountains, but it could be hard to measure!*

1668435997387e603c9e480f008bcd297f7d0234dd — *Fortunately, our snowpack is look decent here and across most of the west as compared with the average for this time of the year.*

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 11 16 22 — * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
48	69/ 1943	15	-15 / 1955

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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Mark Langford

I consider myself a "weather journalist" who has been studying and following meteorology since taking an earth science class in eighth grade. Later, when I became a professional commercial photographer, I learned that my continued studies in meteorology helped me plan outdoor photo assignments. I'm now a semi-retired photographer who teaches photo workshops, goes storm chasing and of course enjoys photographing great landscapes and clouds in our area. My fine art photography can be seen here: https://fineartamerica.com/profiles/1-mark-langford

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