Here comes the low!

Pagosa Peak

A lenticular cloud formed behind Pagosa Peak this morning at daybreak. Photo © 2022 Mark Langford.

Sunday – 13 Nov 2022 – 10am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 42 and the low this morning was 18 degrees. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 24%. Winds at the airfield hit 6mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary…There was no precipitation to summarize from yesterday.

Forecast discussion…

A cut-off low will slide SE from Nevada to Arizona, then trek eastward, opening up a snow window from 4pm today through 4am on Monday morning. With temperatures dropping back into the teens again, it could be a little slippery for those of you driving into work tomorrow morning.

The best chance for snow is from sunset tonight through 4am Monday. Spotty snow showers are possible a few hours on either side of that, especially over the mountains. There could be some heavy snow showers tonight on Wolf Creek Pass, so try to avoid driving on the pass if possible.

There may be a few scattered snow showers tomorrow as some moisture wraps around the low pressure as it exits our area.

The models had hinted that there might be another chance for snow later in the week, but as of this morning, it looks like continued below normal temps for us with some re-enforcing shots of colder air moving in and continued fair weather. Look for lows in the single digits and teens and highs upper 30’s to low 40’s.

My forecast:

Snow amounts overnight:

Valley: 1/2-2”

Chama: 1/2-2”

Mountains: 3-5”

Screenshot 2022 11 13 083444
Our current mid-level atmosphere is picking up a little moisture from the SW this morning as the cut-off low slides SE out of Nevada. The low will move SE, then track east over the next 24 hours.
Screenshot 2022 11 13 083627
Radar is picking up some showers and snow showers in Utah this morning…movement is east.
StormTotalSnow GJT
The latest snowfall forecast totals from the NWS in Grand Junction.
Screenshot 2022 11 13 082907
The latest NWS 3-day snowfall total is predicting around a 2 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs, 2 inches for Chama and 5 inches for Wolf Creek.
NBM
The latest NBM model is forecasting only 0.6 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 11 13 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5268 / 199018-11 / 1950

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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