Roads could be slick Monday morning …

Cold morning walks with pup Tommy and skies like this are a great way to start the day!  – pic taken 11/12/2022

Cold morning walks with pup Tommy and skies like this are a great way to start the day!  – pic taken 11/12/2022

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Saturday – 12 Nov 2022 – 1:30pm

HUGE thanks to the Pagosa Springs Middle School 8th graders for hosting the breakfast for veterans. And thanks to the Pagosa Springs community for supporting veterans.
HUGE thanks to the Pagosa Springs Middle School 8th graders for hosting the breakfast for veterans. And thanks to the Pagosa Springs community for supporting veterans.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 38. The low this morning was 16.  The cold spots dipped into the high single digits. Winds at the airfield hit 10mph yesterday afternoon.

Precip summary… There has been no recent precip.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Those are nearly all high level clouds over the Four Corners region. The low will slide to our south Sunday night and early Monday morning.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – Those are nearly all high level clouds over the Four Corners region. The low will slide to our south Sunday night and early Monday morning.
Radar this afternoon – Though the system looks a bit impressive on satellite, there isn’t much precip with it. The track of the low out of the northwest means it won’t gain any additional moisture on its way towards us.
Radar this afternoon – Though the system looks a bit impressive on satellite, there isn’t much precip with it. The track of the low out of the northwest means it won’t gain any additional moisture on its way towards us.

Today through most of tomorrow… The upper level ridge will move to our east.  We’ll see more clouds but will stay dry. Afternoon winds will kick up a bit.

Late Sunday through Monday morning… A fast moving low pressure system with limited moisture will slide to our south and kick up snowshowers. I don’t expect much snow, but the one thing working in our favor are the cold temps. It will be powdery snow that will have no problem sticking. Roads could be sketchy Monday morning, especially over Wolf Creek Pass.

The best chance for snow is 10pm Sunday to 6am Monday. Spotty snow showers are possible a few hours on either side of that, especially over the mountains.

Snow amounts…

Valley: 0-1”

Chama: 1-2”

Mountains: 2-4”

Tuesday and Wednesday… Another quick moving system with limited moisture will move through the area from the northwest. We’ll see spotty snowshowers, mainly over the mountains. A few snowflakes are possible in the valley and the lucky spots in the mountains could get an inch.

Next system?… Friday night to Sunday night – Some forecast models expect decent snow while others expect hardly anything. At this point, I expect hardly anything.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
The Grand Junction NWS snowfall forecast indicates up to 1” for Pagosa, and up to 4” in our mountains. This looks good to me.
The Grand Junction NWS snowfall forecast indicates up to 1” for Pagosa, and up to 4” in our mountains. This looks good to me.
The Albuquerque NWS snowfall for northern NM indicates 1-2” for Chama and the highest amounts in the NM Sangre de Cristos.
The Albuquerque NWS snowfall for northern NM indicates 1-2” for Chama and the highest amounts in the NM Sangre de Cristos.
The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks – I agree that temps are expected to be below average for the next two weeks.
The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature outlooks – I agree that temps are likely to be below average for the next two weeks.
The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks – These products indicate a “slightly below” chance for less than average precip.  Based on everything I see, we should be firmly in the “likely below” chance for less than average precip for the next two weeks.
The CPC 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation outlooks – These products indicate a “slightly below” chance for less than average precip. 
Based on everything I see, we should be firmly in the “likely below” chance for less than average precip for the next two weeks.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5270 / 198917-8 / 1940

Mark will take over tomorrow.  Good luck!

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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