A sun pillar is created by the reflection of light from tiny ice crystals that are suspended in the atmosphere. They are formed in cold, stable conditions when the sun is low on the horizon. – pic taken 11/10/2022
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Thursday – 10 Nov 2022 – 11:15am

The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 55. The low this morning was 21. The cold spots dipped into the mid-teens. Winds at the airfield hit 41mph yesterday afternoon. We hit 45mph in O’Neal Park. The Wolf Creek/Lobo Overlook sensor hit 66mph.
The storm slowed to our west yesterday evening and then weakened as it moved through. Light snow started falling around 7pm and never turned into the heavy burst that I expected. Cortez got an hour or two of heavy snow, but it didn’t make much farther east. We got the winds though!
Precip summary… Snow amounts were less than the 1-2” I expected in the valley but in line with the 3-6” I forecast for the mountains. Wolf Creek reported 4” of new snow this morning.

Forecast discussion…

There is nothing on radar this morning.
Today through Saturday… Ridging will take over and give us dry weather. Though temps will warm slightly, they’ll stay below average.
Late Sunday afternoon through Wednesday… The storm track will stay in our “neighborhood”. During this time we could see two fast-moving systems that will be weak and have limited moisture. The models are all over the place so forecast confidence in snow amounts and timing is very low. My expectations for snow amounts are low: 0-2” in the valley and 3-6” in the mountains. As always, I’ll nail down the details as the data gets better.
My forecast…


The models vary considerably in amounts and timing. Precip totals range from a trace for the Canadian model and NBM model to 0.79” for the GFS model. The overall model average is around 0.20” so for now I’m going with the WPC.

The GFS is the most bullish forecast model and shows three different systems. All three systems are expected to move into the Four Corners region from the northwest, stay to our south, move quickly, and won’t have much moisture. Right now there are so many discrepancies between the models that I don’t buy any of them.

Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
52 | 69 / 1980 | 18 | 0 / 1948 |
Next post will be on Saturday.
– Shawn