It will be an interesting evening! …

Beautiful morning – the calm before the storm! – pic taken 11/9/2022

Beautiful morning – the calm before the storm! – pic taken 11/9/2022

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Wednesday – 9 Nov 2022 – 8:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday afternoon was 59. The low this morning was 32.  The coldest I saw this morning was the upper Piedra with 17 degrees. Winds at the airfield hit 24mph yesterday afternoon.

Precip summary… There has been no precipitation.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this morning – The low is spinning over the northern NV and moving northeast. We’ll catch the tail end of the cold front this evening.
Water vapor satellite this morning – The low is spinning over the northern NV and moving northeast. We’ll catch the tail end of the cold front this evening.
Radar this morning – A narrow band of moderate to heavy precip is moving towards the east with the cold front.
Radar this morning – A narrow band of moderate to heavy precip is moving towards the east with the cold front.

Today… The front will move west to east across Archuleta County 5-7pm. For an hour or two ahead of the front, scattered showers with rain up to 8,500ft is possible. Behind the front, temps and snow levels will drop rapidly and we’ll see a quick 1-2 hour burst of moderate to heavy snow.

** Winds will gust 30-40mph this afternoon and into the evening in the valley and 60-70mph in the mountains. **

** Expect a 1-2 hour period of moderate to heavy snow, poor visibility, gusty winds, and bad roads this evening. **

My snow forecast…

Valley below 8,500ft: 1-2”

Above 8,500ft: 3-6”

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the southwest San Juan Mountains for 2-6” of snow and winds to 60mph valid from noon to midnight today. *** Precip will start in our mountains 3-4pm and be done by midnight.  I expect winds to 70mph in the mountains. This advisory does not include Pagosa Springs.

Thursday through Monday… Ridging will take over and give us dry weather and a gradual warming trend.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
NWS snowfall forecast expects 1-2” in the valley Pagosa and 4-8” in our mountains.
NWS snowfall forecast expects 1-2” in the valley Pagosa and 4-8” in our mountains.
HRRR forecast radar from noon today to Thursday at 2am – Precip will advance as the cold front moves west to east. The leading edge enters western Archuleta County around 4pm and is done by 1am. The heaviest precip is expected 5-8pm.
HRRR forecast radar from noon today to Thursday at 2am – Precip will advance as the cold front moves west to east. The leading edge enters western Archuleta County around 4pm and is done by 1am. The heaviest precip is expected 5-8pm.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5269 / 197318-4 / 1948

I’ll probably do a quick Facebook post this evening, otherwise, my next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2024 Pagosa Weathe

Website Design by : Brandon