1-2 hours of moderate to heavy snow, poor visibility, gusty winds, & bad roads tomorrow evening …

Great fishing weather for November! – pic taken 11/8/2022

Great fishing weather for November! – pic taken 11/8/2022

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Tuesday – 8 Nov 2022 – 7:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high this afternoon was 59. The low this morning was 29.  The coldest I saw was the upper Piedra with 18 degrees this morning. Winds at the airfield hit 24mph this afternoon.

Precip summary… There has been no precipitation.

Forecast discussion…

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The low over CA is expected to move towards the northeast. We’ll catch the tail end of the cold front tomorrow evening.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – The low over CA is expected to move towards the northeast. We’ll catch the tail end of the cold front tomorrow evening.
Radar this evening - The leading edge of showers has moved into western UT.  Individual showers are moving towards the northeast.  The entire area of precip will move east as the low tracks northeast.
Radar this evening – The leading edge of showers has moved into western UT.  Individual showers are moving towards the northeast.  The entire area of precip will move east as the low tracks northeast.

Wednesday… The front will move west to east across Archuleta County 5-7pm. For an hour or two ahead of the front, scattered showers with rain up to 8,500ft is possible. Behind the front, temps and snow levels will drop rapidly and we’ll see a quick 1-2 hour burst of moderate to heavy snow.

** Winds will gust 30-40mph tomorrow afternoon and into the evening in the valley and 60-70mph in the mountains. **

** Expect a 1-2 hour period of moderate to heavy snow, poor visibility, gusty winds, and bad roads Wednesday evening. **

My snow forecast…

Valley below 8,500ft: 1-2”

Above 8,500ft: 3-6”

Thursday through Monday… Ridging will take over and give us dry weather and a gradual warming trend.

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
NWS snowfall forecast expects 1” in Pagosa and 3-5” in our mountains.
NWS snowfall forecast expects 1” in Pagosa and 3-5” in our mountains. Northwest Colorado will be favored – we’ll just get scraps.
HRRR forecast radar from Wednesday at 8am to Thursday at 2am – Precip will advance as the cold front moves west to east. The leading edge enters western Archuleta County around 4pm and is done by 11pm. The heaviest precip is expected 5-8pm.
HRRR forecast radar from Wednesday at 8am to Thursday at 2am – Precip will advance as the cold front moves west to east. The leading edge enters western Archuleta County around 4pm and is done by 11pm. The heaviest precip is expected 5-8pm.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5266 / 193419-7 / 1948

My next post will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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