A shot for snow Wednesday night to Thursday morning…

Conditions were pretty good up at Wolf Creek yesterday! – pic taken 11/5/2022

Conditions were pretty good up at Wolf Creek yesterday! – pic taken 11/5/2022

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Sunday – 6 Nov 2022 – 5:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 36 and the high this afternoon was 48. The low this morning was 22 but the cold spots dipped into the mid-teens. Winds at the airfield hit 5mph both yesterday and today.

Precip summary… There has been no precipitation.

Forecast discussion…

This evening through Wednesday morning… We are between a flat ridge to our northeast and the next low pressure system to our northwest.  We’ll see patches of high clouds and winds increasing as upper level flow picks up.

Water vapor satellite this afternoon – It’s dry in the Four Corners area. The Wednesday night/Thursday morning system is off the Pacific northwest coast. The low pressure center is expected to track pretty quickly across WY Wednesday night.
Water vapor satellite this afternoon – It’s dry in the Four Corners area. The Wednesday night/Thursday morning system is off the Pacific northwest coast. The low pressure center is expected to track pretty quickly across WY Wednesday night.

There is nothing on radar in our region.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday around noon… The next system will move through.  Spotty showers will start over the mountains late Wednesday afternoon and then increase by late evening. The best chance for precip is late Wednesday evening to sunrise on Thursday. Then spotty showers will linger until noon Thursday, especially over the mountains.

The snow level will start around 8,500ft Wednesday afternoon and then drop through the evening.

** Winds will be gusty Wednesday afternoon to early Thursday morning. Windy spots in the valley will hit 35mph and winds in the mountains will peak in the 60-70mph range. **

** Expect brief periods of snow, poor visibility, gusty winds, and bad roads, especially in the mountains, late Wednesday evening to early Thursday morning. **

My snow forecast…

Valley below 8,500ft: 1-3”

Above 8,500ft: 3-6”

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
NBM forecast snowfall to Thursday evening – It shows 1.5” in Pagosa and 3-6” in our mountains.
NBM forecast snowfall to Thursday evening – It shows 1.5” in Pagosa and 3-6” in our mountains.
Euro 500mb vorticity from Tuesday at 8am to Friday at 8am – 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and a good level to track the overall pattern. Vorticity is the spinning of air and often leads to upward vertical motion which causes clouds and precip. Yellow and red indicate positive vorticity advection and the most likely areas for precipitation. We catch the tail end of the front as it moves through early Thursday morning.
Euro 500mb vorticity from Tuesday at 8am to Friday at 8am – 500mb is roughly 18,000ft and a good level to track the overall pattern. Vorticity is the spinning of air and often leads to upward vertical motion which causes clouds and precip. Yellow and red indicate positive vorticity advection and the most likely areas for precipitation.
We catch the tail end of the front as it moves through early Thursday morning.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5470 / 1950194 / 1943

My next post will be on Tuesday.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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