Love waking up to a winter wonderland! – pic taken 11/4/2022
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Friday – 4 Nov 2022 – 10:15am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 34 and the low this morning was 18. The upper Piedra had a low of 7 this morning, but most of us were in the low teens to low 20s. Winds at the airfield hit 24mph yesterday.
Precip summary… Precip came in waves yesterday and the snow level bounced around a bit. Folks above around 7,500ft experienced all snow, but it was wet. Folks below about 7,500ft fluctuated back and forth between rain and snow. Finally between 3 and 5pm, everyone in the Pagosa area got a heavy burst of snow. Hillary, down near Chromo, even reported thundersnow!
Wolf Creek reported a total of 26” and should have a good opening today!
The storm moved through after midnight like expected, but had already weakened considerably, so we didn’t get the last burst of snow I expected.
Thanks so much for your reports!
Forecast discussion…
Today through Monday… The low has moved to our southeast. Upper level flow has switched to the northwest and drier air has moved in. Ridging and dry air will stick with us through Monday.
Tuesday night through Thursday morning… The next system will move through. The forecast models are all over the place with a wide range of outcomes so my forecast confidence in the details is very low. Right now, I think the best storm energy and moisture will stay to our north and we’ll get scraps. The best chance for precip is Wednesday afternoon to Thursday morning.
My rough first guess snow forecast…
Valley below 7,500ft: 1-3”
Valley above 7,500ft: 2-4”
Mountains: 4-8”
As always, I’ll adjust the amounts and timing as the data gets better.
My forecast…
The top chart shows snowfall amounts for 24-hour periods for 50 model runs of the Euro. Similar amounts and similar times for the 50 versions results in higher forecast confidence. In this case, the time periods are quite inconsistent and amounts range from a dusting of snow to 9”.
The bottom chart shows the range of the amounts. I focus on the little vertical light blue boxes, the blue “control” line, and the green “mean” line. In this case 1-4” is the likely range (light blue boxes) and 2.75” is the mean. Based on everything else I’ve looked at this morning, I agree with these amounts, and am not certain of the timing. This data will get better as the storm gets closer and forecast confidence will improve.
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 54 | 72 / 1915 | 19 | -6 / 1991 |
My next post will be on Sunday.
– Shawn
