Let it snow!…

Wolf Creek Pass is snowpacked while Put Hill and Yellowjacket look wet and slushy.  Be careful out there! – Web cam captures 11/3/2022 at 9:15am

Wolf Creek Pass is snowpacked while Put Hill and Yellowjacket look wet and slushy.  Be careful out there! – Web cam captures 11/3/2022 at 9:15am

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Thursday – 3 Nov 2022 – 10:00am

Announcement: Today at 6:45pm Arleen will be discussing the winter outlook at the PLPOA Clubhouse with the San Juan Outdoor Club. The presentation is open to the public.

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 56 and the low this morning was 33. Winds at the airfield hit 28mph yesterday evening.

Precip summary… Rain started changing to snow across much of the valley between 5am and 8am.  And once it switched to snow, it came down heavily. Based on your very helpful reports on our Facebook page this morning, areas above 7,800ft had 2-3” of wet snow by 8am.  Locations below 7,800ft were mostly less than 1.5”. Snow started to stick in town around 7:30am.

Thanks so much for your reports!

CoCoRaHS observers.. Gusty winds will start moving your snow around this afternoon making it difficult to measure. If possible, do a snow measurement as the winds begin to pick up.  Good luck!

CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from 0.3” to 3”. Mark is the snow lottery winner just north of Hatcher Lake!
CoCoRaHS 24-hour snowfall reports range from 0.3” to 3”. Mark is the snow lottery winner just north of Hatcher Lake!

Forecast discussion…

Today through tomorrow morning… A pretty strong system is expected to move through the Four Corners area. The latest track for the low pushes it nearly over our heads between midnight tonight and sunrise tomorrow.

For travelers, keep a close eye on travel conditions, including the higher sections along I-40 through AZ and NM. In those areas 40-50mph winds and brief periods of poor visibility could be a problem.

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a WINTER STORM WARNING for an additional 7” to 14” of snow above 8,000ft” and winds gusting to 45mph valid until midnight tonight. ***

Water vapor satellite loop this morning: The low is spinning over the Las Vegas area. Southwest flow ahead of the system is funneling clouds and moisture into our area. The low is expected to move along east along the UT/AZ border and then the CO/NM border.
Water vapor satellite loop this morning: The low is spinning over the Las Vegas area. Southwest flow ahead of the system is funneling clouds and moisture into our area. The low is expected to move east along the UT/AZ border and then the CO/NM border.
Radar this morning: Radar is picking up on some of the snowshowers in our area. The low is expected to move through our area after midnight.
Radar this morning: Radar is picking up on some of the snowshowers in our area. The low is expected to move through our area after midnight.

Today through this evening… Precip will come in waves and fall heavily at times.  Expect periods of poor visibility and bad driving conditions. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible. Winds will get gusty this afternoon.

As of 8am, temps are right around freezing for most of the valley and the snow level is around 7,000ft. Temps will rise a couple of degrees and the snow level could briefly pop up to 7,500ft.

Snow forecast for this period…

Below 7,500ft: 2-4”

Valley above 7,500ft: 4-8”

Above 9,000ft in the mountains: 12-18” and winds to 60mph

Late this evening to Friday at noon… As the low slides to our east, upper level flow will turn northwesterly, and moisture and precip will decrease. Snowshowers will become more spotty. Accumulating snow will be about done in the valley around midnight and linger over the mountains into the late morning.

Valley: Up to 2” but it will be spotty

Mountains: 2-4”

Total snowfall amounts (includes snow that has already fallen)

Below 7,500ft: 2-5”

Valley above 7,500ft: 6-10”

Above 9,000ft in the mountains: 20-30”

My forecast…

See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for more specific timing and snow amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
The NWS 72-hour snowfall forecast shows an additional 2” for Pagosa and another 12-20” for our mountains.  Note that snow amounts increase pretty quickly above 8,000ft.
The NWS 72-hour snowfall forecast shows an additional 2” for Pagosa and another 12-20” for our mountains.  Note that snow amounts increase pretty quickly above 8,000ft.
The NWS 72-hour liquid equivalent expects 0.5” for Pagosa and up to 1.75” in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour liquid equivalent expects 0.5” for Pagosa and up to 1.75” in our mountains.
HRRR forecast radar with precip type from 8am this morning to Friday at 9am – This is high resolution 3km data and does a good job with our complicated terrain. Precip comes in waves through the day and then becomes more spotty this evening.
HRRR forecast radar with precip type from 8am this morning to Friday at 9am – This is high resolution 3km data and does a good job with our complicated terrain. Precip comes in waves through the day and then becomes more spotty this evening.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5475 / 1945204 / 1929

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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