Low expectations…

It was snowing lightly up at Wolf Creek this morning with sun poking through the clouds – Wolf Creek cam 10/26/2022

It was snowing lightly up at Wolf Creek this morning with sun poking through the clouds – Wolf Creek cam 10/26/2022

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Wednesday – 26 Oct 2022 – 10:50am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 49 and the low last night was 27. Winds at the airfield hit 7mph yesterday.

Precip summary… CoCoRaHS reports were all zero this morning.

Forecast discussion…

This morning… A weak trough is moving west to east across Colorado.  The trajectory and upper level westerly flow will keep most of the moisture and precip to our north. A few spotty snowshowers will result in a few snowflakes in parts of the valley and up to an inch in the mountains.

Tonight and tomorrow… The main system will move nearly north to south along the CO/UT border. The best chance for us to get precip is early Thursday morning to early Thursday afternoon. Snowshowers will linger over the mountains into the early evening.

My snow forecast:

Below 7,500ft: Trace to 0.5”

Above 7,500ft: Trace to 1.5”

Mountains above 9,000ft: 3-6”

*** Keep an eye on travel conditions if you plan to travel across any mountain passes tomorrow, including Le Veta and Raton passes. ***

Friday through Tuesday ridging will take over and give us lots of sun, but temps will stay 5-10 degrees below average.

Next Wednesday through Friday… I’m tracking another system.  As usual with a system more than 5-7 days out, the forecast models are all over the place, so forecast confidence is minimal.

Currently outcomes range from a weak system will a little bit of snow to a decent system with a moderate amount of snow.  Some long range forecasts like Open Snow, expect Wolf Creek to get significant snow. As of this morning, I think Open Snow’s forecast is overdoing it.

I’ll dig deeper in the next couple of days.

Water vapor satellite this morning: A trough is moving west to east across Colorado this morning. The main system is over eastern Oregon and will move through our area tomorrow.
Water vapor satellite this morning: A trough is moving west to east across Colorado this morning. The main system is over eastern Oregon and will move through our area tomorrow.
Radar this morning: Radar isn’t picking a few spotty snowshowers in our area this morning, but most of the precip will stay to our north with this morning’s trough.
Radar this morning: Radar isn’t picking a few spotty snowshowers in our area this morning, but most of the precip will stay to our north with this morning’s trough.

My forecast…

See above for snow forecast amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See above for snow forecast amounts.

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
The NWS snowfall forecast for Colorado expects less than an inch for Pagosa Springs and 3-6” in our mountains.
The NWS snowfall forecast for Colorado expects less than an inch for Pagosa Springs and 3-6” in our mountains.
NBM forecast radar valid from 7am this morning to 3pm tomorrow – It does a good job with the precip this morning across northern Colorado.  Precip starts increasing over our area early tomorrow morning and is spotty into the afternoon. Le Veta and Raton Passes will have poor driving conditions tomorrow afternoon.
NBM forecast radar valid from 7am this morning to 3pm tomorrow – It does a good job with the precip this morning across northern Colorado.  Precip starts increasing over our area early tomorrow morning and is spotty into the afternoon. Le Veta and Raton Passes will have poor driving conditions tomorrow afternoon.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6080 / 1943229 / 1997

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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