It was snowing lightly up at Wolf Creek this morning with sun poking through the clouds – Wolf Creek cam 10/26/2022
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Wednesday – 26 Oct 2022 – 10:50am
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 49 and the low last night was 27. Winds at the airfield hit 7mph yesterday.
Precip summary… CoCoRaHS reports were all zero this morning.
Forecast discussion…
This morning… A weak trough is moving west to east across Colorado. The trajectory and upper level westerly flow will keep most of the moisture and precip to our north. A few spotty snowshowers will result in a few snowflakes in parts of the valley and up to an inch in the mountains.
Tonight and tomorrow… The main system will move nearly north to south along the CO/UT border. The best chance for us to get precip is early Thursday morning to early Thursday afternoon. Snowshowers will linger over the mountains into the early evening.
My snow forecast:
Below 7,500ft: Trace to 0.5”
Above 7,500ft: Trace to 1.5”
Mountains above 9,000ft: 3-6”
*** Keep an eye on travel conditions if you plan to travel across any mountain passes tomorrow, including Le Veta and Raton passes. ***
Friday through Tuesday ridging will take over and give us lots of sun, but temps will stay 5-10 degrees below average.
Next Wednesday through Friday… I’m tracking another system. As usual with a system more than 5-7 days out, the forecast models are all over the place, so forecast confidence is minimal.
Currently outcomes range from a weak system will a little bit of snow to a decent system with a moderate amount of snow. Some long range forecasts like Open Snow, expect Wolf Creek to get significant snow. As of this morning, I think Open Snow’s forecast is overdoing it.
I’ll dig deeper in the next couple of days.
My forecast…
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
Pagosa Springs historical data
| Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
| 60 | 80 / 1943 | 22 | 9 / 1997 |
My next post will be tomorrow morning.
– Shawn
