Scattered snowshowers today – Lots of sun Friday through Tuesday…

Wolf Creek Pass is getting periods of snow and poor visibility this morning. – CDOT web cam 10/27/2022 at 9:20am

Wolf Creek Pass is getting periods of snow and poor visibility this morning. – CDOT web cam 10/27/2022 at 9:20am

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Thursday – 27 Oct 2022 – 10:30am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 52 and the low this morning was 31. Winds at the airfield hit 21mph yesterday.

Precip summary… A couple of CoCoRaHS observers reported a trace of precip this morning. A few folks have sent me pictures of falling snow while I worked on this post.

Forecast discussion…

Today… The main system will move nearly north to south along the CO/UT border. On and off scattered snowshowers will fall until early evening. Some areas will experience brief periods of reduced visibility and heavier snow. Clouds will gradually clear tonight.

My snow forecast:

Below 7,500ft: Trace to 0.5”

Above 7,500ft: Trace to 2”

Mountains above 9,000ft: 3-6”

*** Keep an eye on travel conditions if you plan to travel across any mountain passes, especially Le Veta and Raton passes later today. ***

Friday through Tuesday ridging will take over and give us lots of sun, and we’ll see a gradual warming trend with temps near average by this weekend.

Next Wednesday night through Friday… I’m tracking another system. Outcomes range from a weak system will a little bit of snow to a decent system with a moderate amount of snow. 

As usual with a system more than 5-7 days out, the forecast models are all over the place, so forecast confidence is minimal. Example: This morning’s Open Snow forecast for Wolf Creek has lopped off 10” from yesterday. That’s a big change from one forecast to the next.

In tomorrow’s post, I’ll include my initial snow forecast.

Water vapor satellite this morning: The low is sliding south along the Co/UT border.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The low is sliding south along the Co/UT border.
Radar this morning: Scattered showers are spinning counter-clockwise around the low. That band of showers in the Arboles area will move northeast across the eastern half of the county over the next two hours. I’ve also received a  couple of reports and pictures of snow in other parts of the county so radar isn’t picking up everything. This is why your reports are so helpful!
Radar this morning: Scattered showers are spinning counter-clockwise around the low. That band of showers in the Arboles area will move northeast across the eastern half of the county over the next two hours. I’ve also received a  couple of reports and pictures of snow in other parts of the county so radar isn’t picking up everything. This is why your reports are so helpful!

My forecast…

See above for snow forecast amounts. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
See the forecast discussion above for snow forecast amounts.

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. *
The NWS snowfall forecast for Colorado expects less than an inch for Pagosa Springs and 3-6” in our mountains.
The NWS snowfall forecast for Colorado expects less than an inch for Pagosa Springs and 3-6” in our mountains. Note the higher amounts to our east, especially over Raton Pass.
HRRR forecast radar valid from 9am this morning to 9am tomorrow – Spotty showers increase this afternoon as the low moves to our south. The high resolution models indicate the best chance for snow is 3-5pm and we’ll be lucky to get an inch.
HRRR forecast radar valid from 9am this morning to 9am tomorrow – Spotty showers increase this afternoon as the low moves to our south. The high resolution models indicate the best chance for snow is 3-5pm and we’ll be lucky to get an inch.
NBM snowfall to next Saturday at midnight shows 1-4” for much of the valley and 12-18” in our mountains. Most of this would fall in waves Wednesday night through Friday with the heaviest snow falling on Thursday. This storm is still 7 days away and there is considerable variance between models so forecast confidence in timing and snow amounts is low.
NBM snowfall to next Saturday at midnight shows 1-4” for much of the valley and 12-18” in our mountains. Most of this would fall in waves Wednesday night through Friday with the heaviest snow falling on Thursday.

This storm is still 7 days away and there is considerable variance between models so forecast confidence in timing and snow amounts is low.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
5973 / 1910228 / 1913

My next post will be tomorrow morning.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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