Cruise control for a few days…

Pagosa Lake

I flew my drone over Pagosa Lake this morning in search of some fall color. © 2022-Mark Langford

Monday – 17 Oct 2022 – 2:30pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 60 and the low this morning was 32. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 36%. Winds at the airfield hit 8mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary… Rainfall reports ranged from zero (my backyard and a few others) to 0.13 inches.

Screenshot 2022 10 17 133906
Nice to see that some of you won the rain lottery yesterday! 24-hour COCORAHS reports.

Forecast discussion…

In the short term, just nice fall weather ahead through Friday as high pressure takes over our atmosphere. Morning lows will generally be in the 20’s and low 30’s while highs will edge up to the 60’s. As we saw this morning, some of the fog prone areas may see more fog over the next couple of days in the morning. The upper-level low is located to our south, but this low is weakening as it moves east, eventually being absorbed into a trough over the plains.

Looking further down the road, as Shawn hinted this past weekend, we could see our first real signs of winter, especially for the mountains. Several of the latest models are forecasting a very strong trough to dig into the Pacific NW, sending down several short waves, a strong cold front and very good odds for precipitation. If this pans out, look for several inches (perhaps over a foot) of snow for the mountains and possibly some in the valleys as well. I’ll continue to monitor the models and keep everyone updated this week.

Screenshot 2022 10 17 135333
Current Water vapor satellite this afternoon shows the upper-level low to our south. This low is moving east and weakening as it is about to be absorbed by a trough. Our mid-level winds are now out of the north as drier air marches in for the remainder of the work week.
NBM 1
The latest NBM model is forecasting 1.27 inches of precipitation from this weekend through Monday of next week! Let’s see how it changes over the next few days.
EURO
The latest Euro model run is forecasting 0.83 inches of precipitation from this weekend through Monday of next week. Let’s see how it changes over the next few days.
GFS 1
The latest GFS model is only forecasting 0.19 inches of precipitation from this weekend through Monday of next week. Let’s see how it changes over the next few days.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 10 17 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6378 / 19912614 / 1913

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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One Response

  1. We had a low of 29 this morning ( Monday) and sleet overnight clinging on my car doors and windshield!

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