This could be a really entertaining weekend!

Pagosa Fall

I shot this fall image of Pagosa Peak with Gambel Oaks in the foreground last week. ©-2022 Mark Langford

Tuesday – 18 Oct 2022 – 12:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 59 and the low this morning was 31. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 36%. Winds at the airfield hit 11mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary… Rainfall reports were pretty wimpy but a couple of you found 0.01 inches of rainfall in your gauges. Don’t forget that a heavy frost can melt and give you about that total in your gauge. Frost and dew are not classified as precipitation because they form directly on solid surfaces.

Screenshot 2022 10 18 123645
COCORAHS reports from yesterday.

Forecast discussion…

Nice fall weather ahead through Friday as high pressure has invaded our area. Morning lows will generally be in the 20’s and low 30’s while highs will edge up to the 60’s. Some of the fog prone areas may see more fog over the next couple of days in the morning.

On Saturday a very strong trough will dig into the Pacific NW, sending down several short waves, a strong cold front and very good odds for precipitation. Look for rapidly changing weather starting on Saturday as our mid-level winds shift into the SW and moisture begins to flow into our area. As the front approaches on Sunday morning, surface winds will increase to 20-30mph with some gusts over 40mph. It will be a wet, windy and cold Sunday with the potential for 1-2 feet of snow in the mountains and even the chance for several inches of snow in the valley. A lot will depend on whether the snow level drops before the moisture exits by Monday morning. As of this post, the higher elevation you live at the greater odds for seeing snow Sunday afternoon and evening. If you can plan “not” to travel over Wolf Creek pass on Sunday and Sunday night, I would certainly do so. It would not surprise me to see weather watches and advisories issued for elevations above 9000 feet for Sunday.

Screenshot 2022 10 18 114057
Our mid-level winds are now out of the north as drier (yellow) air marches in through Friday.
NBM 2
The latest NBM model is forecasting 1.28 inches of precipitation from this weekend through Monday of next week.
NBM Snow
The latest NBM model is forecasting only 0.4 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and around a foot of snow for Wolf Creek from this weekend through Monday of next week.
Euro 1
The latest Euro model run is forecasting 0.53 inches of precipitation from this weekend through Monday of next week.
Euro snow
The latest Euro model run is forecasting 1.3 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and around 16 inches of snow for Wolf Creek from this weekend through Monday of next week.
GFS 2
As of this post time, the latest GFS model is only forecasting 0.39 inches of precipitation from this weekend through Monday of next week
GFS Snow
As of this post time, the latest GFS model is forecasting 1.5 inches of snow for Pagosa Springs and 8 inches for Wolf Cree through Monday of next week

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 10 18 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6480 / 1951258 / 1968

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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