We need to lasso the low and drag it further north!

Aspen

This has been a great season for fall colors! I shot this one last week near Williams Creek Reservoir. © 2022-Mark Langford

Sunday – 16 Oct 2022 – 8:15am

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 67 and the low this morning was only 41, thanks to cloud cover. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 12%. Winds at the airfield hit 10mph yesterday.

Precipitation summary… There were no reports of rain yesterday in our area.

Forecast discussion…

It will be mostly cloudy today as the upper-level low is expected to move through NM today and Monday.  That will put us on the northern edge of this system and unfortunately, unless it were to track a little further north, the drier side. Look for a few showers and thunderstorms during the day and this afternoon with rainfall totals generally less than a tenth of an inch. The mountains could get a dusting, but the latest forecast is not impressive, with totals generally less than an inch. We have a tiny chance for additional showers tomorrow, but defaulting back to the same weather we were having last week, with mostly sunny skies and close to average temperatures.

Screenshot 2022 10 16 073245
Radar imagery from 7:30am this morning shows showers and thunderstorms mainly over NM and AZ. With the low tracking to our south, that’s where most of the precipitation will fall today.
Screenshot 2022 10 16 073403
Water vapor satellite this morning: The upper-level low will be tracking ENE today but unfortunately, most of the moisture from this low will stay in AZ and NM. We will see a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon.
Screenshot 2022 10 16 073625
The NWS 72-hour precipitation forecast now expects 0.07” for Pagosa Springs, the same for the mountains and 0.13 for Chama.
Screenshot 2022 10 16 073507
The NWS 72-hour forecast snowfall expects 1/2-2” in our mountains.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 10 16 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6478 / 19582611 / 1956

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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