Even Pagosa Weather pup Tommy admires the fall colors! – pic taken 10/5/2022
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Friday – 7 Oct 2022 – 2:00pm
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 63 and the low this morning was 37. The upper Piedra had a low of 29 and Mark had a low of 31 just north of Hatcher Lake. The average low right now is 29 so most of us have been seeing morning lows about 10 degrees warmer than average. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 35%. Winds at the airfield hit 7mph yesterday.
Precip summary… A few raindrops fell in a few parts of the county. The CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain lottery winner was Lisa in the San Juan River Village.
We’re still in the battleground between a ridge to the northwest and a cutoff low to the southwest. The upper level low will wobble around the southern NM, southern AZ, and northern Mexico region through the week. This puts us in the “col” between the ridge and the low.
Warning… science geek stuff to follow…
It’s a stagnant weather pattern that will result in just enough moisture and instability to kick up spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Storms today and tomorrow will be slow movers and will be capable of dropping heavy rain over small areas. The snow level will average 11,000ft to 12,000ft but could briefly drop to 10,500ft with stronger showers.
I was hoping to discuss a cooler storm and possible snow next week. In typical transition season fashion, the models are all over the place with the low pressure system.
Today’s round of forecast models keeps the bulk of the colder air, moisture, and storm energy to our north. My forecast confidence for this system has been weak and is getting weaker. Right now I’m not expecting much precip and the snow level should stay above 10,000ft.
Pagosa Springs historical data
|Average High||Record High / Year||Average Low||Record Low / Year|
|68||80 / 1987||29||12 / 1955|
I look forward to meeting some of Archuleta County’s CoCoRaHS volunteers tomorrow!
My next update will be on Sunday.