Scattered PM showers & thunderstorms through the weekend…

Our aspen groves are magical! – pic taken 10/5/2022

Our aspen groves are magical! – pic taken 10/5/2022

If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!

Wednesday – 5 Oct 2022 – 7:45pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high today was 59 and the low this morning was 45. Humidity today bottomed out at 45%. Winds at the airfield hit 12mph today.

Precip summary… The CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain lottery winner was Hillary near Chromo.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.36”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.36”

Forecast discussion…

We will be in the battleground between a ridge to the west and a cutoff low to the south. The upper level low will wobble around the southern NM, southern AZ, and northern Mexico region through the week. This puts us in the “col” between the ridge and the low.

It’s a stagnant weather pattern that will result in just enough moisture and instability to kick up spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The snow level will average 11,500ft to 12,000ft but could briefly drop to 10,500ft with stronger showers.

Infrared satellite this evening: The upper level low is spinning over west-central NM. Flow over area is from the northeast towards the southwest. A couple of spotty showers developed this afternoon over southern Colorado.
Infrared satellite this evening: The upper level low is spinning over west-central NM.  Flow over our area is from the northeast towards the southwest. A couple of spotty showers developed this afternoon over southern Colorado.
Radar at 6:52pm: A decent shower was moving towards the southwest through the central part of the county.
Radar at 6:52pm: A decent shower was moving towards the southwest through the central part of the county.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
The NWS 72-hour forecast precip indicates 0.21” in Pagosa Springs and up to 0.80” in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour forecast precip indicates 0.21” in Pagosa Springs and up to 0.80” in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour snowfall forecast indicates 1-3” above timberline in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour snowfall forecast indicates 1-3” above timberline in our mountains.
Euro ensemble forecast model precip through next Monday at 6pm expects 1.00”. Note the soaking expected for much of NM. The NBM shows 0.90” and the GFS ensemble shows 1.39”. The models continue to struggle with the cut-off low to our south. Much of this precip will be spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms so amounts will vary considerably.
Euro ensemble forecast model precip through next Monday at 6pm expects 1.00”. Note the soaking expected for much of NM. The NBM shows 0.90” and the GFS ensemble shows 1.39”.  The models continue to struggle with the cut-off low to our south.  Much of this precip will be spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms so amounts will vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6882 / 19562913 / 1908

My next update will be on Friday.  I might be talking about snow next week.  Stay tuned!

– Shawn

Pagosa Weather Blizzard Level Sponsor

Ski & bow rack logo with an archer
Pagosa Weather Snowman Level Sponsors
Pagosa Weather Snowball Level Sponsors

Pagosa Weather Storm Sponsor

The Springs Resort logo
Shawn Pro

Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
Categories

All Posts Archive

Get Pagosa Weather Updates

Enter your email address to receive notifications of new posts by email.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Support Pagosa Weather
Mark's Photography
Contact Us

Pagosa Weather Disclaimer and Release of Liability

This website makes no guarantees about nor bears any responsibility or liability concerning the accuracy or timeliness of the weather information published on this website. All weather information published on this website is for educational and weather enthusiast purposes only. We do not issue Storm Watches, Warnings or Advisories as that ability falls with the National Weather Service, who is the only institution allowed to issue such warnings by law. We are not in any way linked nor affiliated with the National Weather Service, although we do share information and relay weather watches/ warnings, etc. Use of the information on page is at your own risk/discretion, and we are not responsible for any personal/property damages, injury or death associated with weather forecasts, reports or other information as well as communication exchanged in private messages and/or person.

Terms of Use                  Privacy Policy

 

© 2023 Pagosa Weather 

Website Design by : Brandon