Much of the same for the next week…

Amazing reflection on Williams Creek Reservoir this morning – pic taken 10/4/2022

Amazing reflection on Williams Creek Reservoir this morning – pic taken 10/4/2022

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Tuesday – 4 Oct 2022 – 5:00pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 59 and the low this morning was 43. The cold spots dipped into the mid-30s this morning. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 53%. Winds at the airfield hit 7mph yesterday.

Precip summary… There were a couple of spotty showers yesterday afternoon, but rain totals were light. The CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain lottery winner was Mark north of Hatcher Lake.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.06”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from zero to 0.06”

Forecast discussion…

Upper level flow is weak out of the north as a ridge builds along the West Coast.  However, an upper level low will wobble around the southern NM, southern AZ, and northern Mexico region through the week. This puts us in the “col” between the ridge and the low.

It’s a stagnant weather pattern that will result in just enough moisture and instability to kick up spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The snow level will average 11,500ft to 12,000ft but could briefly drop to 10,500ft with stronger showers.

Satellite this afternoon: The blue arrows indicate upper level flow. We’re in the battleground between northerly flow around the ridge to our west and southwesterly flow. The red arrows indicate roughly the expected track of the cutoff low.
Satellite this afternoon: The blue arrows indicate upper level flow.  We’re in the battleground between northerly flow around the ridge to our west and southwesterly flow.  The red arrows indicate roughly the expected track of the cutoff low. 
Radar this afternoon: Showers popped up in our area over the mountains. Movement in our area is slowly towards the east.
Radar this afternoon: Showers popped up in our area over the mountains. Movement in our area is slowly towards the east.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
The NWS 72-hour forecast precip indicates 0.17” in Pagosa Springs and up to 0.75” in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour forecast precip indicates 0.17” in Pagosa Springs and up to 0.75” in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour snowfall forecast indicates 2-4” above timberline in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour snowfall forecast indicates 2-4” above timberline in our mountains.
Euro ensemble forecast model precip through next Monday at 6pm expects 0.89”. Note the soaking expected for much of NM. The NBM shows 0.32” and the GFS ensemble shows 1.48”. The models are struggling with the cut-off low to our south so forecast confidence is low. Much of this precip will be spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms so amounts will vary considerably.
Euro ensemble forecast model precip through next Monday at 6pm expects 0.89”. Note the soaking expected for much of NM. The NBM shows 0.32” and the GFS ensemble shows 1.48”.  The models are struggling with the cut-off low to our south so forecast confidence is low.  Much of this precip will be spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms so amounts will vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6879 / 19873120 / 1959

My next update will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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