Fresh snow on Cimarrona Peak and valley fog this morning – pic taken 10/3/2022
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Monday – 3 Oct 2022 – 5:20pm
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 58 and the low this morning was 45. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 58%. Winds at the airfield hit 10mph yesterday.
Precip summary… We had another evening of big thunder BOOMS and another round of decent rain. The CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain lottery winner was Patricia near Chromo. The CoCoRaHS 2-day rain lottery winner was Steve near Lake Forest.


Forecast discussion…
An upper level low is spinning over eastern Montana and moving slowly east-southeast. The energy has split with a trough moving southeast through AZ and the other trough staying well to our north with the parent low.
Upper level flow will turn northwesterly behind the trough tomorrow as a ridge tries to build over the region. However, an upper level low will wobble around the southern NM, southern AZ, and northern Mexico region through the week. This puts us in the “col” between the ridge and the low.
It’s a stagnant weather pattern that will result in just enough moisture and instability to kick up spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The snow level will average 11,500ft to 12,000ft but could briefly drop to 10,500ft with stronger showers.


My forecast…




Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
68 | 81 / 1946 | 32 | 21 / 1961 |
My next update will be tomorrow afternoon.
– Shawn