Scattered afternoon showers & thunderstorms through the week…

Fresh snow on Cimarrona Peak and valley fog this morning – pic taken 10/3/2022

Fresh snow on Cimarrona Peak and valley fog this morning – pic taken 10/3/2022

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Monday – 3 Oct 2022 – 5:20pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 58 and the low this morning was 45. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 58%. Winds at the airfield hit 10mph yesterday.

Precip summary… We had another evening of big thunder BOOMS and another round of decent rain. The CoCoRaHS 24-hour rain lottery winner was Patricia near Chromo. The CoCoRaHS 2-day rain lottery winner was Steve near Lake Forest.

CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.49” to 1.21”
CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.49” to 1.21”
CoCoRaHS 2-day rain totals range from 0.92” to 1.47” – That’s a good soaking!
CoCoRaHS 2-day rain totals range from 0.92” to 1.47” – That’s a good soaking!

Forecast discussion…

An upper level low is spinning over eastern Montana and moving slowly east-southeast. The energy has split with a trough moving southeast through AZ and the other trough staying well to our north with the parent low.  

Upper level flow will turn northwesterly behind the trough tomorrow as a ridge tries to build over the region.  However, an upper level low will wobble around the southern NM, southern AZ, and northern Mexico region through the week. This puts us in the “col” between the ridge and the low.

It’s a stagnant weather pattern that will result in just enough moisture and instability to kick up spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The snow level will average 11,500ft to 12,000ft but could briefly drop to 10,500ft with stronger showers.

Satellite this afternoon: Those are mostly mid and high level clouds in our area with no precip. The main trough is moving southeast through northern AZ. It will stay to our southwest. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could still pop up today, mostly over the mountains.
Satellite this afternoon: Those are mostly mid and high level clouds in our area with no precip. The main trough is moving southeast through northern AZ. It will stay to our southwest. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could still pop up today, mostly over the mountains.
Radar this afternoon: There isn’t much in our area.  The best storm energy is well to our southwest and east.
Radar this afternoon: There isn’t much in our area.  The best storm energy is well to our southwest and east.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
The NWS 72-hour forecast precip indicates 0.27” in Pagosa Springs and up to 0.75” in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour forecast precip indicates 0.27” in Pagosa Springs and up to 0.75” in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour snowfall forecast indicates 2-5” above timberline in our mountains.
The NWS 72-hour snowfall forecast indicates 2-5” above timberline in our mountains.
Euro ensemble forecast model precip through next Monday at 6pm expects 0.83”. Note the soaking expected for much of NM. The NBM shows 0.33” and the GFS ensemble shows 1.45”.  The models are struggling with the cut-off low to our south so forecast confidence is low.  Much of this precip will be spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms so amounts will vary considerably.
Euro ensemble forecast model precip through next Monday at 6pm expects 0.83”. Note the soaking expected for much of NM. The NBM shows 0.33” and the GFS ensemble shows 1.45”.  The models are struggling with the cut-off low to our south so forecast confidence is low.  Much of this precip will be spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms so amounts will vary considerably.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
6881 / 19463221 / 1961

My next update will be tomorrow afternoon.

– Shawn

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I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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