Soggy in the valley and snow in the high country…

First snow on Pagosa Peak! – pic taken 10/2/2022

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Sunday – 2 Oct 2022 – 12:15pm

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 68 and the low this morning was 47. At 10:30 this morning, we’re at a chilly 45 degrees in O’Neal Park. I’m about to start sipping my second mug of hot tea! Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 31%. Winds at the airfield hit 20mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Much of the county got decent rain. It started last night around 11:30pm with a few big thunder BOOMS. The CoCoRaHS rain lottery winner was Lisa along Mill Creek. Bobby near Lake Forest reported a total of 0.90” at 9am this morning!

*CoCoRaHS 24-hour precip reports range from 0.13” to 0.76”*

Forecast discussion…

An upper level low is spinning over Montana and the tailing trough extends to the southwest into the Great Basin. The low and the trough will slowly move east and keep moisture and instability across our region.

Upper level flow will turn northwesterly behind the trough on Tuesday. Just enough moisture and instability will remain in the area to kick up spotty afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the rest of the week. The snow level will average around 11,500ft but could briefly drop to 10,500ft with stronger showers.

Satellite this morning: Multiple troughs are spinning around the low. The first trough is moving through as I type. We’ll have a lull this afternoon and then showers will ramp up again overnight as the next trough nears. The final trough will move through Tuesday morning.

Radar this morning: The main band of showers is exiting the county as I type. Then there’s a lull ahead of the next band of showers over UT. Individual showers are moving towards the northeast while the bands move towards the east.

My forecast…

* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning. — *** The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. ***
***With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.***

*The NWS 72-hour forecast precip indicates 1.4” in Pagosa Springs and up to 2” in our mountains.*

*The NWS 72-hour snowfall forecast indicates 3-6” above timberline in our mountains. I think peaks above 12,000ft could see up to 10”.*

Euro forecast model precip through next Sunday at 6pm expects 1.41”. The NBM shows 1.56” and the GFS ensemble shows 2.53”. I think the GFS is overdoing it. Much of this precip will fall today and tomorrow and then become more spotty the rest of the week.

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average High	Record High / Year	Average Low	Record Low / Year
69	84 / 1934	32	18 / 1950

My next update will be tomorrow.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!

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