Pagosa Weather SEPTEMBER SUMMARY and October outlook

The current drought map indicates that all of Archuleta County is "abnormally dry"

Saturday – 1 Oct 2022 – 6:00pm

The current drought map indicates that all of Archuleta County is “abnormally dry”

September 2022 Summary…

The average low for September is 37 and the average high is 74. The record high of 98 occurred on 6 September 1955. The record low of 15 occurred on 27 September 1908. Precip averages 2.0″ in September with 0.2″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.26″ of rain and 4.1″ of snow.

How did we do?

Temps in September were 3-4 degrees above average.
Temps in September were 3-4 degrees above average across Archuleta County.
On the left is total precip for September and on the right is percent of average.  The western part of the county did quite well while the eastern part had below average precip.
On the left is total precip for September and on the right is percent of average. The western part of the county did quite well while the eastern part had below average precip.
CoCoRaHS precip totals for September range from 1.76" to 3.62". Most reports are near or above the average of 2.0"
CoCoRaHS precip totals for September range from 1.76″ to 3.62″. Most reports are near or above the average of 2.0″
CoCoRaHS precip totals for the second half of June are on the left and totals for July, August, and September are on the right. This was our wettest monsoon in the last 10 years!
CoCoRaHS precip totals for the second half of June are on the left and totals for July, August, and September are on the right. This was our wettest monsoon in the last 10 years!

Drought and River Flow…

The most current drought map is on the left and the a month ago is on the right. The entire county is now considered "abnormally dry".
The most current drought map is on the left and a month ago is on the right. The entire county is now considered “abnormally dry”.
San Juan River flow for September - The minimum flow as 65cfs on 20 Sep and the maximum was 1,100cfs on 22 Sep.
San Juan River flow for September – The minimum flow as 65cfs on 20 Sep and the maximum was 1,100cfs on 22 Sep.
Upper Colorado Basin lake levels. Current is on the left and a month ago is on the right. Overall the levels dropped almost 3%. Navajo Reservoir dropped 1.77%.
Upper Colorado Basin lake levels. Current is on the left and a month ago is on the right. Overall the levels dropped almost 3%. Navajo Reservoir dropped 1.77%.

OCTOBER 2022 Outlook…

The average low for October is 26 and the average high is 63. The record high of 85 occurred on 14 October 1940. The record low of -5 occurred on 21 October 1910. Precip averages 2.27″ in October with 4″ of snow. Wolf Creek Pass averages 4.39″ of rain and 26.7″ of snow.

The CPC temperature outlook for October expects warmer than average temps for the western 2/3 of the US.
The CPC temperature outlook for October expects warmer than average temps for the western 2/3 of the US.
The CPC precipitation outlook for October indicates above average for our area.
The CPC precipitation outlook for October indicates above average for our area.
30-day precip forecast for the Euro ensemble on the left and the GFS ensemble on the right – The Euro expects 2.67″ and the GFS expects 3.02″. Both models expect precip more than the average of 2.27".
30-day precip forecast for the Euro ensemble on the left and the GFS ensemble on the right – The Euro expects 2.67″ and the GFS expects 3.02″. Both models expect precip more than the average of 2.27″.
30-day snowfall forecast for the Euro ensemble on the left and the GFS ensemble on the right – Both models expect 3-5" which is inline with the average of 4".
30-day snowfall forecast for the Euro ensemble on the left and the GFS ensemble on the right – Both models expect 3-5″ for us which is inline with the average of 4″.

And what do we expect?

Well Arleen is the expert and this is what she says…

Keeping in the spirit of the last 4 months, the first half of October will be wet. We’ll start the month with a little more precip than average and then dry out the second half of the month as La Nina keeps the polar front jet and more active weather to our north. We should see a couple of snow flakes as cool air wraps around these lows as they move through. Below average snow will fall in the high country. We’ll definitely see our first widespread freezing temperatures. Transition season is tricky – we’ll monitor closely!

A HUGE thanks for your precip reports and pictures! Reports help verify our forecasts and make us better forecasters.

Another HUGE thanks to our donors and sponsors! You help cover the cost of this web page and our weather subscriptions, necessary to provide you accurate weather reports!

And if you’re curious about us, check out this excellent video by Matt Martin. We are humbled and honored that he used his talent and time to spotlight Pagosa Weather!

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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2 Responses

  1. Loved the video! And you three really deserve to have this kind of information about you and what you do because not everyone really understands the impact of having people like you looking out for all of us Pagosans by watching snd reporting on the weather for our little area, with all of its often rapidly changing moods! Thanks for all you do guys!

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