Rain is heading our way…

Rain

Pagosa Peak has seen a couple of showers so far today.

Saturday – 1 October 2022 – 2:30pm update.

The past…

The high on Friday at Stevens Field was 71 and the low this morning was 44. Most of us recorded no rain yesterday but there were a couple of spots that reported 0.02 and 0.01 inches of rain.

Screenshot 2022 10 01 103214
Rainfall was almost nil yesterday for our area.
Screenshot 2022 10 01 130607
2:15pm radar shows some scattered showers to our north, moving NE. Rain odds will be on the increase later today and into the evening.

Forecast discussion…

A low pressure and trough to our NW will continue slowly moving east over the next 4 days, increasing our rain odds starting this afternoon and evening. Look for a mostly cloudy skies with very good chances for rain through Monday along with cooler temps as a cold front pushes through tomorrow. The low will be almost stationary through Monday, then will drift slowly east, so look for a continued chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.

Low
A trough and low are located to our NW this afternoon, spinning clouds, showers and thunderstorms counterclockwise around the low. This low will move ever so slightly east over the next few days, increasing our rain odds through Wednesday.
Screenshot 2022 10 01 125713
The latest Euro model shows low pressure moving only slightly east through Monday…it will still be giving us decent odds for rain through Wednesday of next week.
Screenshot 2022 10 01 130150
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast model is predicting 0.80 for PagosSprings and 0.90 inches of rain for Chama.
Screenshot 2022 10 01 130127
Fun to see some snow being forecast for our mountains over the next three days! Best odds for seeing snow on the pass will be Monday night.
Screenshot 2022 10 01 125931
The latest Euro model run is predicting almost an inch of rain through Wednesday and some light snow for our nearby mountains.
GFS
The latest GFS rainfall model is forecasting almost an inch and a half of rain through Wednesday.
NBM
The latest NBM model is predicting over an inch of rain for us through Wednesday.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 10 1 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for October 1st.

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7082/ 19803120/ 1965
Announcement
I’d love to see you guys on Thursday the 6th from 5:30pm-7:30pm at Two Old Crows Gallery. I’ll be doing a presentation that evening and talking about some of my images from over the past 50 years.

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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