Rain odds are ramping up!


We treated a visiting friend to the Durango-Silverton train ride yesterday where fall colors up in that area are at a peak. As we arrived around 12:30pm into Silverton, a heavy downpour greeted us as we exited the train, along with temps in the upper 30’s. Yours truly was caught without an umbrella or rain jacket, thinking that storms would not be arriving before 3pm! Photo by Mark Langford

Friday – 30 September 2022 – 2:45pm update.

The past…

The high on Thursday at Stevens Field was 71 and the low this morning was 41. There was only a trace of rain recorded in our area yesterday.

Screenshot 2022 09 30 135143
1:45pm radar shows some hefty showers and thunderstorms forming over eastern UT and west central CO this afternoon. Although they are moving in our general direction, most of the activity will stay to our north today.

Forecast discussion…

Thanks to a closed low and trough slowly moving east over the next 3 days, our rain odds will be on the increase and our afternoon temperatures will be on the decrease. This afternoon, storms are firing up to our west, but are forecast to track to our north, leaving us with only a slight chance for rain. Better odds will be from Saturday through Tuesday as the slow-moving low tracks eastward, giving us a really good chance for rain along with cooler temps. The low will be slow to go next week, so look for a continued chance for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Screenshot 2022 09 30 134329
A trough and closed low are located to our NW this afternoon, producing some hefty thunderstorms over UT and west central sections of CO this afternoon. This closed low will move ever so slightly east over the next few days, increasing our rain odds through Monday.
Screenshot 2022 09 28 144713
The latest Euro model shows the closed low moving only slightly east through Monday. This will keep us in the moisture fetch during that time period.
Screenshot 2022 09 30 134508
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast model is predicting 0.70 for PagosSprings and 1 inch of rain for Chama.
Screenshot 2022 09 30 134542
Fun to see some snow being forecast for our mountains over the next three days! It won’t be long before we some decent snow totals as we work our way into October.
The latest Euro model run is predicting almost an inch of rain through Monday and some cool temps for our highs.
Screenshot 2022 09 30 133458
The latest EURO model is predicting 4 inches of snow for Wolf Creek Pass over the next week. This will all melt, but if you happen to be driving over the pass the Monday-Tuesday evening, you could see some snow mixed in with showers and thunderstorms.
Screenshot 2022 09 30 134408
The latest GFS model is predicting over an inch of rain for us through Monday and lighter totals almost every day next week.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 9 30 22 1
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for Sept. 30th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7085/ 19573221/ 1985

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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