Bearable weather with a chance for rain…

Black bear

A fairly close encounter with a black bear during our Grand Teton trip last week…fortunately we were with a wildlife guide and this bear was more interested in Hawthorn berries than us! © 2022-Mark Langford

Wednesday – 28 September 2022 – 3:30pm update.

The past…

The high on Tuesday at Stevens Field was 71 and the low this morning was 44. Our humidity bottomed out at 24% and the airport recorded a 20mph wind gust. Rainfall totals ranged from zero to 0.16 inches.

Screenshot 2022 09 28 091911
Scattered PM Poppers roamed our area yesterday dropping anywhere from zero to 0.16 inches of rain.
Screenshot 2022 09 28 150703
3pm radar shows scattered showers and some thunderstorms forming north of HWY 160, then moving north. There is a chance we could see some rain form in our area later today.

Forecast discussion…

For the next couple of days, we will continue to see chances for scattered storms each afternoon as moisture on the surface and in the mid-levels supports for formation of showers and storms thanks to afternoon heating and lift from our mountains. By this weekend, a closed low and trough will move into the Pacific NW, increasing our rain odds and ushering in some cooler temps behind a cold front. Models are still trying to get a handle on this system with the NBM model keeping most of the moisture to our north and the EURO forecasting over an inch of rain for the valley and up to 5 inches of snow for our nearby mountains. My next update will be Friday and hopefully by then, we will have a better idea of what will be happening next week. Temps will continue to be perfect for fall foliage viewing with lows in the 30’s and highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s through Friday.

Screenshot 2022 09 28 145510 1
A trough and closed low will be moving ESE over the next couple of days, eventually ushering in some cooler air with an increase in rain odds over the weekend and early next week.
Screenshot 2022 09 28 144713
The latest Euro model thinks the closed low will bring in enough moisture into our area in the mid-levels this weekend and early next week to drop over an inch of rain and some snow for our peaks.
Screenshot 2022 09 28 144624
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast model is only predicting 0.02 for PagosSprings and 0.04 for Chama.
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The latest NBM model run continues to think most of the rain through Tuesday will stay to our north.
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The latest EURO model not only thinks we will see some decent rain totals through Tuesday, but is also predicting over 5 inches of snow for our nearby mountains.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 9 28 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for Sept. 26th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7185/ 19533217/ 1908

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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