Slight chance for rain all week…

Steamboat Geyser

We just returned from a great trip to Yellowstone and the Grand Tetons. This is Steamboat Geyser, which rarely erupts, but decided to do so the first day we were in Yellowstone! It is considered the world’s tallest geyser, sending steam upwards to over 300 feet.

Tuesday – 27 September 2022 – 8:45am update.

The past…

The high on Monday at Stevens Field was 74 and the low this morning was 39. Our humidity bottomed out at 23% and the airport recorded a 23mph wind gust. Rainfall totals were basically zip zero nada, but one location south of town reported a trace.

Forecast discussion…

This is certainly not the pattern we had last week, but there will be some scattered storms around each afternoon through at least the weekend. There is some moisture in the mid-levels and that will react with daytime heating each day to produce mainly mountain hugging storms that will have a hard time reaching the valleys. This weekend, a trough and cold front will give us better odds for rain and cooler temps, but as of this post, it looks like most of the moisture will stay to our north. Temps will be perfect for fall foliage viewing with lows in the 30’s and highs in the upper 60’s to low 70’s through Friday.

Screenshot 2022 09 27 080529
While there is some moisture in the mid-levels, this is certainly not the same setup as last week.
Screenshot 2022 09 27 080301
The latest NWS 3-day rainfall forecast model is predicting 0.04 for PagosSprings and 0.06 for Chama.
Screenshot 2022 09 27 081209
The latest NBM model run thinks most of the rain through the weekend will stay to our north.
Screenshot 2022 09 27 080801
The latest 6-10 day forecast is predicting a slight chance for above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation.

My forecast…

Pagosa 5 day forecast 9 27 22
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.

Pagosa Springs historical data for Sept. 26th

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7082/ 19633215/ 1908

Check out my Pagosa Peak Cam (myearthcam.com) for watching hikers, bikers and of course, the weather.

-Mark Langford

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