Final dreary day then sunny all weekend…

Everything is a bit soggy – pic taken 9/21/2022

Everything is a bit soggy – pic taken 9/21/2022

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Thursday – 22 Sep 2022 – 11:15am (Note that due to web page problems, this was posted to the web page around 1:30pm.)

The past…

At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 63 and the low this morning was 55 – a difference of only 8 degrees is indicative of thick cloud cover and lots of moisture. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 69%. Winds at the airfield hit 6mph yesterday.

Precip summary… Rain has mostly been light with a few quick heavier bursts. Rain amounts are good, but I was expecting more. The rain lottery winners were Val in Lost Valley and Lisa in San Juan River Village.

24-hour CoCoRaHS rainfall reports range from 0.49” to 1.00”
24-hour CoCoRaHS rainfall reports range from 0.49” to 1.00”

Forecast discussion…

Last day of tropical moisture
A BIG thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this soaking!
A BIG thanks to the Springs Resort for sponsoring this soaking!

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a FLOOD WATCH valid through this evening. Excessive rainfall and runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, low-lying areas, and other flood-prone locations. ***

Turn around, don’t drown!
Turn around, don’t drown!

This morning we are still under the heart of the tropical moisture plume, but it will push to our east this evening.

Precip expectations… Showers will come in waves fluctuating between periods of heavy rain and nothing.  By this evening, showers will become more scattered and taper off after midnight. I expect an additional 0.25” to 0.75” of rain in the Pagosa Springs area.

Friday through Sunday ridging will build over the region.  Upper level winds will gradually turn from westerly on Friday to northwest and then north through the weekend. Dry air advection will lead to lots of sun and seasonal temps.

Monday and Tuesday there could be just enough instability and moisture to trigger a couple of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.

Water vapor satellite this morning: The band of tropical is getting pinched and moving east. It will remain active through the afternoon and then taper off this evening.
Water vapor satellite this morning: The band of tropical is getting pinched and moving east. It will remain active through the afternoon and then taper off this evening.
Radar this morning: A band of showers is moving through as I type.  Individual cells are moving towards the northeast while the whole line is moving towards the east.
Radar this morning: A band of showers is moving through as I type.  Individual cells are moving towards the northeast while the whole line is moving towards the east.

My forecast…

Today: Rain, occasionally heavy with localized flooding and then tapering off during the evening. Patchy fog will develop in the low-lying areas overnight. Friday night to Saturday morning: Patchy fog is possible in the low-lying areas. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights: The cold spots could dip below freezing. * The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
Today: Rain, occasionally heavy with localized flooding and then tapering off during the evening. Patchy fog will develop in the low-lying areas overnight.
Friday night to Saturday morning: Patchy fog is possible in the low-lying areas.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights: The cold spots could dip below freezing.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.
The NWS 72-hour forecast precip expects Pagosa Springs to get 0.8” of rain. Like the last couple of days, I think this is overdoing it a bit and consider this the high end of my expectations.
The NWS 72-hour forecast precip expects Pagosa Springs to get 0.8” of rain. Like the last couple of days, I think this is overdoing it a bit and consider this the high end of my expectations.
HRRR forecast radar loop from 10am this morning to 6am tomorrow – A band of showers is moving through as I type. Another band is forecast to move through 4-6pm. I’m skeptical of that final band moving through 11pm-1am.
HRRR forecast radar loop from 10am this morning to 6am tomorrow – A band of showers is moving through as I type. Another band is forecast to move through 4-6pm. I’m skeptical of that final band moving through 11pm-1am. 

Pagosa Springs historical data

Average HighRecord High / YearAverage LowRecord Low / Year
7185 / 19453423 / 1983

Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.

My next update will be tomorrow morning and I’ll include 3-day precip totals.

– Shawn

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Shawn Pro

I’ve been a “weather geek” since I was young child. I joined the military out of high school and was lucky to get my dream job in weather. I have 20 years of military weather experience which includes forecasting the weather all over the world. Highlights were six years in Alaska and making life and death weather decisions during deployments. I love mountains, I love snow, and I love summertime thunderstorms. I spend a bunch of time playing outdoors and found my paradise in Pagosa Springs. I do Pagosa Weather as a community service. Hopefully you find us helpful!
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