Everything is a bit soggy – pic taken 9/21/2022
If images fail to load in the email, please click the title of the post. Thanks!
Thursday – 22 Sep 2022 – 11:15am (Note that due to web page problems, this was posted to the web page around 1:30pm.)
The past…
At Stevens Field the high yesterday was 63 and the low this morning was 55 – a difference of only 8 degrees is indicative of thick cloud cover and lots of moisture. Humidity yesterday afternoon bottomed out at 69%. Winds at the airfield hit 6mph yesterday.
Precip summary… Rain has mostly been light with a few quick heavier bursts. Rain amounts are good, but I was expecting more. The rain lottery winners were Val in Lost Valley and Lisa in San Juan River Village.

Forecast discussion…
Last day of tropical moisture

*** The Grand Junction NWS has issued a FLOOD WATCH valid through this evening. Excessive rainfall and runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, low-lying areas, and other flood-prone locations. ***

This morning we are still under the heart of the tropical moisture plume, but it will push to our east this evening.
Precip expectations… Showers will come in waves fluctuating between periods of heavy rain and nothing. By this evening, showers will become more scattered and taper off after midnight. I expect an additional 0.25” to 0.75” of rain in the Pagosa Springs area.
Friday through Sunday ridging will build over the region. Upper level winds will gradually turn from westerly on Friday to northwest and then north through the weekend. Dry air advection will lead to lots of sun and seasonal temps.
Monday and Tuesday there could be just enough instability and moisture to trigger a couple of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mostly over the mountains.


My forecast…

Friday night to Saturday morning: Patchy fog is possible in the low-lying areas.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday nights: The cold spots could dip below freezing.
* The forecast periods are from 8am to 8am. * With showers and thunderstorms expect brief periods of heavy rain, small hail, gusty winds, and lightning.


Pagosa Springs historical data
Average High | Record High / Year | Average Low | Record Low / Year |
71 | 85 / 1945 | 34 | 23 / 1983 |
Call 877-841-0247 for our “dial up and text” forecast.
My next update will be tomorrow morning and I’ll include 3-day precip totals.
– Shawn
One Response
In Meadows 1 we’ve had 1.37”.